Welcome to our weekly market commentaries and geopolitical analyses written by Larry Simon. The primary focus of the Fort Kobbe newsletter is to provide clients and investors with insights into the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver. This is a resource for investors who prioritize physical asset security and want a global finance perspective that emphasizes the value of gold and silver in a volatile economic climate.
On COMEX (CME Group), there are GOLD call options expiring December 2026 at strike prices of $10,000, $15,000, and $20,000 per ounce. These are deep out-of-the-money. Gold is trading around $4,500, so $15,000 is about 3.3x current price. Open interest numbers (as of the Feb 2026 reports): Each COMEX gold
The Premium That Proves Everything The paper prices of both gold and silver on monthly, weekly, and daily charts are all in sell mode. Should paper transactions in these time frames be sold? I would sell my paper positions and be on the lookout for a change in signal. If
What is M2 Money supply? For consistency with modern statistical reporting I will use the term money supply as defined by M2 primarily as currency and credit expansion rather than money in the classical sense. (Gold, silver). The increase in monetary terms of M2 from 1969, $589 Billion to 2025
This is what really worries me. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is on a never-ending upward trajectory, with an increasing angle. Never mind the sub 4.5% inflation numbers we are constantly being fed. This constant erosion of our purchasing power is subtle, insidious and devastating. The Straits of Hormuz costs
The Strait of Hormuz is again effectively closed. Iran mined it shut, the U.S. blockaded Iran, then the U.S. launched “Project Freedom” to escort neutral ships through, and then Trump, true to form, paused the whole thing mid-stream to negotiate a ceasefire deal. Meanwhile, every barrel of oil that can’t
In my opinion, the world economies are in dire trouble; all are devaluing their currencies, and currency printing is rampant. As a result, inflation is roaring while the economies are slowing to a snail’s pace. We do not see the decline easily because most currencies are falling together. We should
Below is a 25 year chart where we divide the silver price by the value of the SPX which shows us whichever asset is outperforming the other. I have (in orange), projected the silver price onto the chart. Even though the silver price has increased substantially, compared to the S&P500
I love when everyone wins! The question is: Who is actually the winner? I think President Trump wants you to think he has lost it, mentally. It makes him unpredictable. Both sides are claiming victory and as the saying goes wars are not really over when one side declares victory
We have a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. Within minutes, the ceasefire was broken by Iran. Shortly thereafter, there was a reaction by Israel. I am afraid that my confidence in the longevity of this ceasefire is tenuous at best. The markets, however, have reacted positively, for the time
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has done something unusual: it pushed oil above $100, stoked inflation, and removed the “rate cut eventually” floor from metals. Gold can’t play its traditional dual role as both an inflation hedge and a rate-cut beneficiary when the Fed is forced to stay hawkish. That’s
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