We have a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. Within minutes, the ceasefire was broken by Iran. Shortly thereafter, there was a reaction by Israel. I am afraid that my confidence in the longevity of this ceasefire is tenuous at best.
The markets, however, have reacted positively, for the time being. The dollar has weakened, the ten year yield has dropped slightly, the DOW has improved, and so has the S&P and NASDAQ Crude oil prices dropped by about 16%, cryptos have improved, and gold and silver have reacted very well. Long may it last.
Markets are instantly reactive and purport to be predictive. The reality is that huge damage, which has not yet reached the consumer, in many cases, has not yet fully impacted.
Enormous economic, political, and geographic turmoil has been initiated by this war. I am not saying good or bad, yet. Economically, war affects the populations of both aggressor and recipient countries, both in the cost of war directly and in the vast inflationary impacts which are only felt later. Politically, both sides are affected as some of the population support government actions, whilst others oppose them. Geographically, incredible damage is experienced by both sides. But more important is the realignment of countries as allies and the subsequent political realignment both within and outside the countries.
Direct economic effects will last a long time. If we are lucky, supplies will reach their destination in time to avert crises. It is not just oil and the huge number of products produced from it, it is also fertilizer, gas for the manufacture of computer chips and a whole host I cannot think of. I have read estimates of around 45,000 items produced from oil and its by-products.
Inflation is understandably rampant because of suppressed interest rates and massive wartime printing. Tariffs are a huge input cost right at the base level. Stagflation is evident in many quarters. If shortages manifest in addition to these measures, the outcome will not be rosy.
What continues, irrespective of war or not, is ongoing money printing, causing currency devaluation and inflation. Increased debt expansion to finance the war effort as well as all the government projects. Continuing interest rate suppression to maintain the borrowing affordability. None of these measures are good for the population.
If we are realistic, it is still Iran that controls access through the Straits of Hormuz. Has America won if that is the case? Where does that point to in the future? My preference is for peace in the Middle East, and I believe it is possible.
My understanding was that there was no agreement regarding Lebanon. It appears that Iran is threatening a response unless Israel does not stop attacking Lebanon immediately. This further destabilizes the ceasefire arrangement. I would not be surprised to see markets turn again if this escalates.
Holding or settling this peace initiative is going to require genius levels of negotiation. I believe there is an agenda I am certainly not seeing. Time will reveal what we are allowed to see.
PLATINUM
SELL: On the Daily chart (03 March 2026), Chart turning, wait for buy signal.
URANIUM
BUY (8 April 2026) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms Bitcoin (28 March 2026). 15.28 one ounce gold coins buys one bitcoin, this was over 41 ounces almost a year ago.
ETHUSD: BUY: ( 06 April 2026)
BTCUSD: SELL: 25 March 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
25 March 2026 Gold stocks outperform gold.
Silver stocks outperform silver (26 March 2026).
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Gold outperforming Silver. (03 March 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 64.55:1.
GOLD TO USD
Gold outperforms USD, (06 April 2026).
Copper (BUY: 31 Mar 20, 2026)
GOLD & SILVER CHART
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,755.00 | $4,601.00 |
| Silver Price | $74.75 | $70.30 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 63.55:1 | 65.46:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 46.15 | 42.31 |
| Dollar Index | 98.85 | 100.13 |
| Dow: Gold Ratio (BahaUS 47,794.00 Gold price, 4,755.00) | 10.05 | 9.99 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 2.4% | 2.4% |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,600.00 and the high was $4,857.00, now trading at around $4,775.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a SELL. (25 March 2026) From $1800.00 to $4513.00.
- Gold Weekly: (SELL 19 March 2026) Candlestick signs of a turnaround, no conventional signals yet.
- Gold Daily: (BUY 1 April 2026).
The low for Silver this week was $69.78 and the high $77.64 trading around $75.23 at present.
- Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy: $24.00 March 2024). No sell signal yet. Watching carefully.
- Silver Weekly: (SELL: 09 February 2026). If I were holding physical I would not be releasing it at these prices. As a trade I would follow the signal. No new buy on the indicators yet. Looking promising.
- Silver Daily: SELL (04 March 2026). Spike low promises a reversal; indicators still catching up. Almost a buy. One indicator to buy.
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A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:
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This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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