Below is a 25 year chart where we divide the silver price by the value of the SPX which shows us whichever asset is outperforming the other. I have (in orange), projected the silver price onto the chart. Even though the silver price has increased substantially, compared to the S&P500 silver is still relatively cheap.
Silver, particularly lately, has been influenced by the vagaries of the blockade or not of the Straits of Hormuz. The reasons for the volatility are: Oil prices are affected by supply or lack thereof, which affects pricing of almost every item we buy, this affects immediate interest rate expectations. Higher interest rates are a disincentive to holding silver or gold and vice versa.
Physical Silver — Strategic Evaluation Table
Core Pros vs Cons
| Category | Advantage (Pro) | Disadvantage (Con) | Strategic Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Role | Hedge against inflation & currency debasement | No yield | Pure store of value, not income asset |
| Market Behavior | High upside vs gold (beta) | Higher volatility | Strong in bull phases, weak in flat markets |
| Ownership | No counterparty risk | Requires custody | True system-independent asset |
| Market Structure | Benefits from physical vs paper disconnect | Premiums distort entry price | Gains if system stress emerges |
| Demand Drivers | Industrial + monetary demand | Industrial demand cyclical | Dual-use creates both floor and volatility |
| Accessibility | Small denominations available | Premiums higher on small units | Flexible accumulation but costly |
Physical vs Paper Silver
| Factor | Physical Silver | Paper Silver (ETFs, Futures) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ownership | Direct | Indirect | Physical removes intermediaries |
| Counterparty Risk | None | Present | Critical in crisis scenarios |
| Liquidity | Low | very high | Paper better for trading |
| Premiums | High (10–30%) | Minimal | Physical requires price move to profit |
| Storage | Required | None | Adds cost and complexity |
| Speed of Execution | Slow | Instant | Matters in volatility |
| System Exposure | Low | High | Physical protects against system failure |
Cost Structure (Often Overlooked)
| Cost Component | Physical Silver | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase Premium | +10–30% over spot | Immediate negative carry |
| Sell Spread | Dealer buyback discount | Reduces realized gains |
| Storage | Safe / vault cost | Ongoing drag |
| Insurance | Optional but relevant | Risk mitigation cost |
| Liquidity Discount | Possible in stress | Harder exit |
Scenario Performance Matrix
| Scenario | Physical Silver Outcome | Paper Silver Outcome | Preferred Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stable system | Underperforms (friction) | Outperforms | Paper |
| Moderate inflation | Performs well | Performs well | Mixed |
| High inflation | Strong upside | Strong, but counterparty risk | Tilt physical |
| Financial crisis | Outperforms | Risk of dislocation | Physical |
| Market liquidity crunch | Harder to sell | Easy to trade (if functioning) | Mixed |
| Physical shortage | Major upside | May lag or disconnect | Physical |
| Monetary reset | Exceptional upside | Uncertain settlement | Physical |
STRATEGIC ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK
| Objective | Suggested Allocation | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative hedge | 10–20% physical | Insurance only |
| Balanced exposure | 20–40% physical / 60–80% paper | Best risk-adjusted mix |
| High conviction (system stress) | 50%+ physical | Maximize independence |
| Trading focus | <10% physical | Use paper for flexibility |
Key Decision Drivers (What Actually Matters Now)
| Driver | If TRUE → Favor Physical | If FALSE → Favor Paper |
|---|---|---|
| System stress rising | Yes | No |
| Insurance/settlement risk | Yes | No |
| Physical supply tightening | Yes | No |
| Market liquidity stable | No | Yes |
| Short-term trading focus | No | Yes |
Bottom Line
| Dimension | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Best Use Case | Insurance against system disruption |
| Worst Use Case | Short-term trading or yield generation |
| Core Risk | Premium + illiquidity drag |
| Core Opportunity | Physical/paper disconnect |
PLATINUM
BUY: On the Daily chart (08 APRIL 2026). Turning down. No sell yet.
URANIUM
BUY (8 April 2026) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Bitcoin outperforms Gold (08 April 2026). 16.61 one ounce gold coins buys one bitcoin, this was over 41 ounces August 2025
ETHUSD: BUY: ( 06 April 2026)
BTCUSD: BUY: 05 April 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
21 April 2026 Gold outperforms gold stocks.
Silver outperforms silver stocks (15 April 2026). A dicey start. We will watch carefully.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Silver outperforming Gold. (15 April 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 60.99:1.
GOLD TO USD
Gold outperforms USD, (06 April 2026). Appears to be turning.
Copper (BUY: 31 Mar 20, 2026) Turning, no sell yet.
GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold price | $4,730.00 | $4,794.00 |
| Silver price | $76.41 | $78.55 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 61.87:1 | 61.06:1. |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 34.62 | 50.00 |
| Dollar Index | 98.68 | 98.22 |
| Dow: Gold Ratio (BahaUS 49,276.00 Gold price, 4,730.00) | 10.41 | 10.08 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 3.3% | 2.4% |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,668.00, and the high was $4,833.00, now trading at around $4,737.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a SELL. (25 March 2026) From $1800.00 to $4513.00.
- Gold Weekly: (SELL 19 March 2026) Candlestick signs of a turnaround, no conventional signals yet.
- Gold Daily: (BUY 1 April 2026). Almost a sell.
The low for Silver this week was $74.22 and the high $80.65 trading around $76.67 at present.
- Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy: $24.00 March 2024). No sell signal yet. Watching carefully.
- Silver Weekly: (SELL: 09 February 2026). If I were holding physical I would not be releasing it at these prices. As a trade I would follow the signal. No new buy on the indicators yet. Looking promising.
- Silver Daily: BUY (01 April 2026). Looking weak on the daily chart, but no sell yet.
Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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