The Premium That Proves Everything
The paper prices of both gold and silver on monthly, weekly, and daily charts are all in sell mode. Should paper transactions in these time frames be sold? I would sell my paper positions and be on the lookout for a change in signal. If you are trading paper, you can buy or sell in the market you are dealing in.
Because physical metal is more difficult to get than paper, and as large banks and hedge funds are accumulating it (as they trade the loss of faith in the strength of the dollar), I would be wary of letting physical silver or gold out of my hands. So I would trade paper technically and physical metals strategically.
China is paying $38 an ounce more for gold than the rest of the world as of writing.
Over $1,200 per kilogram of additional premiums. This isn’t a blip; this was the average premium in Q4 2025. At peak stress, the LBMA’s own research division (Alchemist) recorded the premium hitting $89 per ounce. Ninety dollars. That’s what Chinese buyers are willing to pay on top of the already record-breaking global price.
And here’s the part that should keep every paper-gold holder awake: they can’t even buy more of it.? (is this accurate and how do we show it)
The PBOC controls gold imports through 12 to 15 licensed commercial banks. When domestic demand from retail investors who lost faith in property and equities, from jewelers, and from the central bank itself outpaces licensed imports, the premium widens. It’s a bottleneck by design, not by accident. And it can’t be arbitraged away because the yuan isn’t freely convertible. Physically moving gold into China is tightly controlled, and nobody with COMEX metal can ship it to Shanghai and make a profit doing it.
So you’re left with two prices for the same metal. Two markets. One is paper cash-settled futures where over 95% of contracts expire with zero physical delivery. The other requires you to actually hold 99.99% pure gold bars in a SGE certified vault. SGE processes 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes of real physical gold annually; that’s 45 to 60% of global mine production flowing through one exchange. The majority of contracts are a commitment to take delivery.
China imported 790 tonnes of silver in the first two months of this year. In February alone, while the paper price was crashing and Western funds were dumping as fast as they could, China took 490 tonnes off the global market and paid premium prices to do it. They took everything they could get.
China buying heavily into declining prices is hardly an indicator of a market falling into weakness. It seems very prudent to do so in a silver market with now six years of deficit supply.
Meanwhile, COMEX registered gold sits at 15.6 million ounces. COMEX registered silver: 81.7 million ounces. COMEX and LBMA combined silver holdings are down 60% from peak. The metal didn’t vanish; it moved from West to East. From paper accounts to physical vaults. From traders who wanted cash to a country that wants physical metal.
In my opinion, this is the most important data point in the precious metals market right now. Not the Fed. Not CPI. Not hedge fund positioning. The Shanghai premium. Because it shows the single thing that matters: what someone is actually willing to pay for physical metal versus what a computer in New York says it’s worth.
The paper market is telling one story. The premium is telling another. And history always resolves to the market where actual metal changes hands.
Gold markets usually go through three phases, first, it is a totally ignored asset, then it becomes a financial hedge, where the west is now and finally it gets recognized as the five thousand year old monetary asset it is, where China sees it now.
In my opinion, only now is value being assigned to both gold and silver, with a long runway ahead.
PLATINUM
SELL: On the Daily chart (18 May 2026).
URANIUM
SELL (12 May 2026) URA. Not a buy yet.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms Bitcoin (06 May 2026). 17.06 One ounce of gold coins buys one Bitcoin, this was over 41 ounces in August 2025
ETHUSD: SELL: ( 26 April 2026)
BTCUSD: SELL: 13 May 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
13 May 2026 Gold outperforms gold stocks.
Silver outperforms silver stocks (15 April 2026). A dicey start.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Gold outperforming Silver. (28 April 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 59.71:1.
GOLD TO USD
USD outperforms Gold, (18 May 2026).
Copper (SELL: 18 May 2026) Looking for directional change. Not convincing yet.
GOLD & SILVER CHART
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,426.00 | $4,529.00 |
| Silver Price | $73.26 | $76.64 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 59.98:1 | 59.27:1. |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 30.77 | 26.92 |
| Dollar Index | 99.16 | 99.20 |
| Dow: Gold Ratio (BahaUS 50,629.00 Gold price, 4,426.00) | 11.44 | 10.91 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Mannarino Market Index – Extreme Risk | 277.0 | 284.0 |
| Buffet Index -strongly overvalued markets 2.1 standard deviations above normal | 219% | 219% |
| 10 Year Yield | 4.50% | 4.63% |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,366.00, and the high was $4,580.00, now trading at around $4,430.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a SELL. (25 March 2026) From $1800.00 to $4513.00. Attempting a recovery.
- Gold Weekly: (SELL 19 March 2026) Candlestick signs of a turnaround, no conventional signals yet.
- Gold Daily: (SELL 18 May 2026).
The low for Silver this week was $71.76, and the high $78.80 trading around $73.80 at present.
- Silver Monthly: (SELL: 20260430. (Buy $24.00 in March 2024 to sell May 2026 for $73.13 = 204% Gain in 2 years 2 months).
- Silver Weekly: (SELL: 09 February 2026). If I were holding physical, I would not be releasing it at these prices. As a trade, I would follow the signal. No new buy on the indicators yet. Looking positive.
- Silver Daily: SELL (15 May 2026).
Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint: watch here
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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