The Strait of Hormuz disruption has done something unusual: it pushed oil above $100, stoked inflation, and removed the “rate cut eventually” floor from metals. Gold can’t play its traditional dual role as both an inflation hedge and a rate-cut beneficiary when the Fed is forced to stay hawkish. That’s the correction we’re seeing. Resolution of the Middle East situation (or failure thereof) is probably the single biggest swing factor heading into April. Gold is in a fight to protect purchasing power, with the profligate money printing and its inflationary result, exacerbated by artificially low interest rates, not to mention tariffs. All opposed by the big banks’ short positions.

OPENING

I watched gold drop 15% in a week. The worst sell-off in 43 years. Silver got hammered even harder. And I will tell you what I did about it:

Nothing.

Not because I wasn’t paying attention. Because I was, and what I saw told me everything I needed to know, not about gold, but about the reasons people were selling it. Let’s walk through what happened, who was behind it, and why the person standing in a queue in Singapore to buy physical silver at $70.00 is probably smart.

WHO SOLD AND WHY

There were six distinct sellers last week. Not one of them sold because gold stopped being a fundamental money. They sold because they needed dollars. The difference matters.

The military strikes on Iran kicked it off. Within milliseconds, hedge fund algorithms fired out sell orders. These programs don’t think, they follow a script: war means oil goes up, oil up means inflation increases or stays, inflation staying means higher yields, higher yields means sell gold. The chain runs and executes before a human can even read the headline.

Then the ETFs went into liquidation. GLD and SLV saw record-breaking outflows. Because the leveraged products amplify everything. A 3% drop in gold becomes a 9% drop in DUST. That 9% drop triggers margin calls. The margin calls force more selling (Not to mention the hiking of margin). More selling drops the price further.  A feedback loop that has nothing to do with whether gold is worth owning and everything to do with how paper products are structured and markets self reinforce momentum.

While the algos and the ETFs were dumping, the institutions were distributing. Selling into the hands of retail investors who thought they were “buying the dip.” I’ve been in markets long enough to know what distribution looks like.

Smart money doesn’t buy dips; smart money creates them.

GULF + DOLLAR PEG + TURKEY + RUSSIA

The Gulf states were selling physical gold. Not paper. Actual metal. The UAE is staring at $307 billion in potential deposit flight according to S&P. “Escape brokers”, that’s a real thing, were arranging charter flights out of Dubai. When a banking system is haemorrhaging capital, you sell whatever is liquid. Gold is the most liquid thing a central bank owns.

And then there’s the dollar peg. This is the part nobody in the financial press is connecting. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain all peg their currencies to the dollar. That peg requires dollar reserves. Normally they earn those dollars selling oil. But with Hormuz closed to dollar transactions, the oil revenue isn’t flowing. So where do the dollars come from? They sell gold.

The US attacks Iran. Iran closes the strait. Gulf oil revenue drops. Capital flight picks up and Gulf states sell gold to get dollars to defend the peg. Gold drops. Dollar strengthens. And the press tells you gold is “weak.”

The same week, the UAE bought $16.5 billion in American weapons bypassing Congress through a “wartime emergency.” Those weapons need dollars too. The war creates the demand for the weapons that require the gold sales that crash the price. Turkey’s central bank dumped 60 tonnes of gold in two weeks. As much as every Western ETF combined. It was the largest reserve drop in seven years. They weren’t selling because gold is bad. They were selling because the lira is dying.

Meanwhile Russia just banned gold exports entirely. Putin signed the decree March 25th. Effective May 1st, no refined gold bars over 100 grams leave Russia. 330 tonnes a year locked inside its borders. Permanently.

Turkey sells 60 tonnes in panic. ETFs dump 60 tonnes in liquidation. Russia locks away 330 tonnes per year forever. Who wins that trade?

77% of the world’s central banks say they will continue buying gold. They didn’t panic at $5,300 and they’re not selling at $4,500.

PHYSICAL vs PAPER + CHINA VALVE

COMEX says silver is $68. buying some at that price is basically impossible, at $68, physical silver doesn’t exist. As of writing buying a one once silver eagle directly from Scottsdale mint will cost: $81.78 a 20% premium  No transport. The United States Mint will sell you a Silver Eagle for $169.00. That’s your own government telling you the real cost of physical silver. 141% premium. In Singapore, people stood in line to buy at $70. In Shanghai, triple digits. China paid $8.00 premiums to import 490 tonnes in February alone.

In New York, algorithms dumped silver ETFs. In Singapore, people stood in line to buy it. My money is on the people in the queue.

China imported 790 tonnes in the first two months of this year. They used to export silver. Not anymore. Now they keep what they refine and import on top of it. Silver goes into China and doesn’t come back. Not some of it. None of it.  A one-way valve.

Western ETFs shed 1,900 tonnes. That metal changed hands West to East, paper to physical, weak hands to strong. At the current rate, China absorbs the entire ETF liquidation by summer.

COMEX and LBMA hold about 135 million ounces, down 60% from the peak. Registered inventory is at a multi-year low of 86 million ounces. Delivery demands are at 7x historical rates. Six consecutive years of supply deficit. Mine supply flat. No new mines for a decade. Solar and missiles consume silver permanently; it’s gone, not recycled.

Governments don’t confiscate things that are worthless. They confiscate things they desperately need. If silver mines get commandeered under the Defence Production Act, the silver already in your vault becomes the last free-market silver on earth.

RELEASE FROM THE SYSTEM

I’ve been thinking about something bigger than metals prices. Something that connects gold, silver, energy, food, currency, all of it.

Every solution the establishment offers swaps one dependency for another. Oil to EVs? Now you depend on the grid. Petrol to hydrogen pipelines? Now you depend on whoever controls the hydrogen. Cash to digital currency? Now the central bank sees every transaction.

The system gives you a new leash and calls it freedom.

On-board water splitting using a platinum catalyst to split water into hydrogen right on the vehicle has been technically possible since the 1800s. Water in, electricity out, water as exhaust. No fuel stations, no supply chain, no OPEC, nor Hormuz. The physics works. The barriers have never been technical. They’ve been political. Too many vested interests in the current system.

I grew up in South Africa. I watched the rand go from R0.90 to buy $1.00 to R18.00 to buy $1.00 (Currently R16.79 for $1.00). A 95% devaluation in one lifetime. I didn’t need an economics degree; I just needed to go to the shops. When I sold my factory, I bought gold. Not stocks, not bonds, not property in a country where the government changes the rules overnight. Gold. That proved to be a prudent investment for the duration of my residence in South Africa post the sale of the factory.

The system isn’t broken. It’s working exactly as designed, for the people who designed it. Everyone else is a customer.

The US pays $1.1 trillion a year in interest on its debt. That money goes to the Federal Reserve, foreign governments, Wall Street banks, and offshore tax havens. Not one dollar builds a road. Not one dollar feeds a family. It will never be repaid. It will be inflated away. That’s arithmetic. And that’s why one holds gold.

DR. COPPER + CLOSE

One last thing before the charts.

Everyone watches copper’s price. Watch the warehouse instead. Global visible stocks just passed 1.39 million tonnes. Twenty-year high. China is refusing to buy at $13,000 a tonne. Copper has called every recession since the 1970s not through price, but through inventory.

The economies of the world are so stretched that, regardless of the war outcome, a significant contraction is coming. For silver, the question isn’t whether industrial demand softens; it will. The question is whether the floor, solar, military, Chinese hoarding, and investment rotation from expensive gold holds above the supply line. Six years of deficit, says it is likely to do.

Gold doesn’t need an economy. It doesn’t need industrial demand. It doesn’t need a government to guarantee it or a server to stay online. When everything else breaks, gold works. There is  five thousand years of evidence.

We continue to watch the Fed,the dollar, the 10-year yield. For wealth preservation, as through history holding physical gold and silver will likely be a winning strategy in the medium to long term. I gladly trade the paper daily. Be careful releasing real ounces.

Your ounce is your ounce. It weighs the same today as it did at $5,300. The paper price is someone else’s panic.

Five thousand years of track record versus one bad month. I know which side I’m on.

PLATINUM

PLATINUM: ~$1,916/oz (+1.5% today)

Actually showing some relative strength this morning, up $28.60 from Friday’s close of $1,887. Range today: $1,827–$1,937. Has been in a downtrend from the $2,376 level it opened March at, so this bounce is a modest counter-move. At under $2,000, platinum remains deeply discounted to gold the spread is historically unusual. Autocatalyst demand and South African supply dynamics are the longer-term story here.

SELL: On the Daily chart (03 March 2026), Chart turning, wait for buy signal.

URANIUM

SELL (03 March 2026) URA. A definite buy in the next week or two. Almost there, one more indicator to buy.

URANIUM: ~$85/lb

Pulled back to the $85 area, a two-month low despite coal prices rising. The year’s start rally to ~$88+ has faded slightly. Long-term story remains intact: tech giants signing SMR contracts, US deregulating uranium converters/enrichers, Cameco/Westinghouse development plans moving forward. The near-term pullback looks like profit-taking after a strong January run (+30% YoY). Nuclear energy demand from AI data centers is the structural bid under this market.

BITCOIN AND GOLD

Gold outperforms Bitcoin  (28 March 2026).  14.6 one-ounce gold coins buy one Bitcoin, this was over 41 ounces almost a year ago.

ETHUSD: SELL: (27 March 2026) 

BTCUSD: SELL: 25 March 2026.  NASDAQ (Cyan).

GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS

25 March 2026 Gold stocks outperform gold.

Silver stocks outperform silver (26 March 2026).

GOLD AND SILVER

The headline story this month. Gold has shed roughly 15% from its peak of $5,595: its worst monthly fall since October 2008. Overnight it dipped as low as ~$4,439 before recovering. Three things are grinding it down: the Fed has effectively ruled out rate cuts in 2026, with which I agree, (CME FedWatch showing 80% odds of a hold in April), a stronger USD, and the Strait of Hormuz closure stoking inflation fears which paradoxically push real yields higher. Big money isn’t panicking though, JPMorgan, UBS ($6,200 target by mid-2026), and BNP Paribas ($6,000 by year-end) all see this as a positioning flush. Key levels to watch: $4,373 support, then back toward $5,000 if that holds. Powell speaks this week alongside NFP, those will set the near-term tone.

SILVER: ~$66–$70/oz range (gold/silver ratio ~62)

Silver took a harder hit earlier in the week, briefly crashing 13%+ below the $66 mark before bouncing. This morning MCX silver futures are up ~1.5% (gold up ~1%), showing some catch-up buying. The gold/silver ratio at 62 is historically mid-range. Silver isn’t screaming cheap relative to gold right now. Same macro headwinds apply: no-cut Fed + strong dollar. Industrial demand is pressured by slowing activity concerns tied to the Hormuz-induced energy spike.

Silver to Gold Ratio

Gold outperforming Silver. (03 March 2026)  Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 63.30:1.

GOLD TO USD

USD outperforms Gold, (30 January 2026). About to turn.

Copper (SELL: Early March 2026) About to become a buy; ~$5.40–$5.50/lb

Copper is struggling below $5.50, under pressure from the broader Hormuz conflict fallout, surging energy prices are raising industrial cost concerns and dampening demand expectations. Houthi militants joined the conflict over the weekend and Trump floated the idea of “taking Iran’s oil,” which is keeping geopolitical risk premium high across energy and commodities. The inflation/rate-hike feedback loop is the main headwind. Copper was flirting with $5.90+ earlier in Feb; that rally has largely reversed.

GOLD AND SILVER CHART

Gold’s low of the week was $4,416.00, and the high was $4,800.00, now trading at around $4,596.00.

• Gold Monthly:  is a SELL. (25 March 2026) From $1800.00 to $4513.00. As a trade, an excellent result. We can buy back when the signal changes. If I were holding physical, because of the fundamentals, I would not let go of it. Notice the tiny positive April candle.

• Gold Weekly:  (SELL 19 March 2026)   Candlestick signs of a turnaround, no conventional signals yet.

• Gold Daily: (BUY 1 April 2026).

The low for Silver this week was $67.64, and the high $76.27, trading around $70.39 at present. 

• Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy:  $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought. No sell signal yet. Watching carefully.

• Silver Weekly: (SELL: 09 February 2026). If I were holding physical, I would not be releasing it at these prices. As a trade, I would follow the signal. No new buy on the indicators yet. Looking promising.

• Silver Daily: SELL (04 March 2026).  Spike low promises a reversal; indicators are still catching up. Almost a buy.

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.

A video by Mike Adams on the  Goldbacks. 

 Well worth a look!

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.