Welcome to our weekly market commentaries and geopolitical analyses written by Larry Simon. The primary focus of the Fort Kobbe newsletter is to provide clients and investors with insights into the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver. This is a resource for investors who prioritize physical asset security and want a global finance perspective that emphasizes the value of gold and silver in a volatile economic climate.
His take on where we are relative to the 1973-1974 fractal of the gold chart. If he is correct, and I believe he is, we are at the beginning of a long upward trajectory. I think the same goes for silver, but for different reasons. Gold doubled over the time
US GDP reportedly grew by 1.5% in the second quarter. Cause for celebration? Not necessarily. The figure comes from the government, and whether it accurately reflects economic reality is open to debate. Personally, I have my doubts. Economists generally regard annual GDP growth of 2% to 3% as healthy. At
China, in my opinion, correctly, is pushing its market towards a mostly physical market. They are removing small traders and superfluous paper trades. The premiums being charged on the contracts are so large that it is hardly worthwhile buying them. The CME, on the other hand, has gone more towards
It appears that both gold and silver may have found a bottom. Nothing in financial markets is certain, but the charts are giving me increasing confidence that a turning point may be close. My initial reaction to this week’s Middle East crisis was that the market was finally behaving in
What is happening with silver. It appears to be falling into the abyss. Why is it happening when the fundamentals are so good? Perth Mint silver sales collapsed from 364 thousand ounces in May (already the lowest since April 2012) to 294 thousand ounces in June. This is 37% less
This is from Rafi Faber (endgameinvestor@substack.com) whose work I really enjoy. He compares the 1973 gold chart with the current chart and speculates that a 100% rally from here is possible. Fractal analysis has a fairly good record of indicating future possibilities. Logically, one would expect gold and silver to
Van Greyerz writes in his newsletter that gold reserves valued at today’s prices comprise about 0.5% of the value of global wealth, $32 trillion. This represents the value of all the gold mined in human history. As a comparison, the market capitalization of the 12 largest US corporations equals $30
Both silver and gold have once again taken a beating this week. I still stand by my conviction that long-term physical holdings should be held, and short-term tradeable metals, stocks, etc. should be traded. The temptation to sell the physical metals at this time is real. The psychological reason is
Kevin Warsh and the committee have decided to hold rates steady. A good decision, in my opinion, considering current conditions. A radical change in policy appears to be in line. The implementation of five task forces to improve systems currently in place should bring benefits to both the FED and
The fundamental picture for silver has worsened in terms of supply, if anything. The three largest traders have massive short positions on silver, so of course they want the price suppressed. The Shanghai premium for real metal is running at present around 11% greater than the western paper price. On
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