It appears that both gold and silver may have found a bottom. Nothing in financial markets is certain, but the charts are giving me increasing confidence that a turning point may be close.
My initial reaction to this week’s Middle East crisis was that the market was finally behaving in a way that made economic sense. Rising oil prices accompanied by rising precious metals seemed logical. Higher energy prices are inflationary, and gold in particular, with silver to a lesser extent, has historically served as protection against inflation. For some time, the apparent disconnect between oil and precious metals had left me scratching my head.
Well, that didn’t last long.
The paragraph above was written yesterday. Overnight, the markets once again proved me wrong.
The traditional explanation for rising oil prices leading to falling precious metals is straightforward. Higher oil prices fuel inflation. In response, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates to contain that inflation. Higher interest rates increase the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets such as Treasury securities while raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Under that scenario, precious metals come under pressure.
The difficulty at present is that the market has very little certainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Mr. Warsh has provided no meaningful forward guidance regarding interest rates, money creation, or the range of monetary tools that may be employed. As a result, market sentiment, rather than economic logic alone, may dominate short-term price movements.
Despite this uncertainty, there are several long-term fundamentals that I continue to watch closely:
- Silver has experienced a supply deficit relative to demand for approximately six consecutive years.
- Industrial demand for silver continues to grow.
- Central banks continue accumulating gold as part of the global trend toward de-dollarization.
- Reports suggest that global oil consumption may have weakened significantly, although I have yet to verify this.
- There are also reports that some oil-producing nations may be liquidating portions of their gold reserves to support their economies and currencies as oil revenues come under pressure. If accurate, this could temporarily weigh on gold prices.
In the short term, almost anything is possible. Markets are often driven by positioning, sentiment, and expectations rather than by economic fundamentals.
My own strategy remains unchanged. I intend to continue holding my physical gold and silver while actively trading paper positions in metals and mining shares when opportunities arise. Physical bullion is my long-term insurance policy. Paper positions are my trading vehicle.
History suggests that patient ownership of physical precious metals has been a rewarding long-term strategy, even if the journey is occasionally uncomfortable.
PLATINUM
BUY: On the Daily chart (06 July 2026). Still holding up.
URANIUM
SELL (12 May 2026) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Bitcoin outperforms Gold (10 May 2026). 15.95 One ounce of gold coins buys one bitcoin; this was over 41 ounces in August 2025.
ETHUSD: BUY: ( 11 June 2026)
BTCUSD: BUY: 2 July 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
22 July 2026: Gold stocks outperform gold. An excellent indicator for the gold price to rise as well.
Silver outperforms silver stocks (06 July 2026). Holding on by a fingernail.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Silver outperforming Gold. (22 July 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 69.25:1.
GOLD TO USD
Gold outperforms USD (04 July 2026). A struggle at present.
Copper (BUY 22 July 2026)
GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,056.00 | $4,003.00 |
| Silver Price | $57.89 | $56.24 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 70.10:1 | 71.20:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 20.27 | 22.67 |
| Dollar Index | 101.45 | 100.58 |
| Dow: Gold Ratio (BahaUS Baha US 51,698.00 Gold price, 4,056.00) | 12.75 | 13.19 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 3.5% | 4.2% |
| Mannarino Market Index | 297.0 | 287.0 |
| Buffet Index -strongly overvalued markets 2.1 standard deviations above normal | 234% | 219% |
| 10 Year Yield | 4.71% | 4.59% |
Gold’s low of the week was $3,982.00 and the high was $4,165.00 now trading at around $4,052.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a SELL. (25 March 2026). Looking more positive. Still negative signals.
- Gold Weekly: (SELL 19 March 2026)
- Gold Daily: (BUY 6 July 2026). Interestingly, gold daily is holding its buy signal.
The low for Silver this week was $55.19, and the high $60.92, trading around $57.81 at present.
- Silver Monthly: (SELL: 20260430. ( Buy $24.00 March 2024 to Sell May 2026 $73.13 = 204% Gain in 2 years 2 months).
- Silver Weekly: (SELL: 09 February 2026).
- Silver Daily: BUY (22 July 2026).
Fort Kobbe International Vaults provides secure storage services only and does not buy, sell, broker, recommend or act as an intermediary in precious metals transactions.
Clients who request an introduction to an independent precious metals supplier may contact our preferred partners by clicking here.
Any purchase or sale is conducted solely between the client and the selected supplier.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks. Well worth a look. watch here
On the Stockcharts.com charts above, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint: watch here
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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