His take on where we are relative to the 1973-1974 fractal of the gold chart. If he is correct, and I believe he is, we are at the beginning of a long upward trajectory. I think the same goes for silver, but for different reasons. Gold doubled over the time period he measured; this would take gold to around $8000.00 conservatively, in my opinion. I still hold conviction for silver at $200.00 as a first stop. The question is what the dollar will be worth. The noteworthy aspect of the chart above is the substantial pullback in the middle of the bullish trajectory.
From Alasdair Macleod substack.
Do not let anybody tell you that when interest rates go up, gold goes down. Proof over the past fifty years (chart above) shows otherwise. The primary factor is REAL interest rates. Expect gold and silver price increases (for different reasons), as interest rate increases are needed in order to prevent stagflation and keep the bond market, and as a result the stock market, from collapse.
There is eight trillion in debt to refinance over the next year. Who will do this at these rates with real inflation where it is? Refinancing at short term interest rates keeps the interest payable at a lower level, but how long will buyers continue without pressurising short term rates?
Silver has a deepening structural deficit, with six years of negative supply against demand. The 2021 to 2025 cumulative deficit is almost 820 million ounces, and the 2026 deficit is expected to be 67 million ounces.
Silver supply is mostly a byproduct of other mining operations, so production variability is not easily changed.
Because the price has been held so low, specialist silver miners have been utilizing their best grades in order to reduce costs. On some mines, much of the best grades are already used; in order to increase production, they have to use less silver-rich deposits, which are relatively more expensive to recover similar silver quantities.
Eventually, above-ground inventories deplete and become more expensive to recover; then prices will do the work that mine supply cannot.
I see a repricing event happening in the not too distant future for both gold and silver.
Gold was up 8.5% this week and silver was up 11.5%. This is an aberration. Apparently caused by short sellers getting caught short, by dollar weakness, the yen assistance program, and bond uncertainty, causing a shift into precious metals.
Buffett Indicator.
The Buffett indicator measures total US stock market value divided by GDP. When it lies on the historical trend line it is fairly valued.
PLATINUM
BUY: On the Daily chart (06 July 2026). Still holding up.
URANIUM
BUY (03 August 2026) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms Bitcoin (24 July 2026). 14.37 one-ounce gold coins buys one Bitcoin; this was over 41 ounces in August 2025.
ETHUSD: BUY: ( 11 June 2026) Looking dicey, almost a sell.
BTCUSD: SELL: 26 July 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan). Looks like an imminent reversal to BUY. The Nasdaq has reversed, but BTCUSD is still holding the sell signal.
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
22 July 2026 Gold stocks outperform gold. An excellent indicator for the gold price to rise as well.
Silver stocks outperform silver (03 August 2026).
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Silver outperforming Gold. (22 July 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 67.43:1.
GOLD TO USD
Gold outperforms USD, (04 July 2026).
Copper (BUY 22 July 2026)
GOLD AND SILVER CHART
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,394.00 | $4,232.00 |
| Silver Price | $65.25 | $61.16 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 67.40:1 | 69.19:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 52.70 | 40.86 |
| Dollar Index | 99.84 | 99.80 |
| Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 53,958.00 Gold price, 4,394.00) | 12.28 | 12.86 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Mannarino Market Index | 290.0 | 288.0 |
| Buffet Index -strongly overvalued markets 2.1 standard deviations above normal | 219% | 219% |
| 10 Year Yield | 4.64% | 4.64% |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,313.00, and the high was $4,449.00, now trading at around $4,394.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a SELL. (25 March 2026). Looking more positive. Still negative signals.
- Gold Weekly: (BUY: 13 August 2026) A very early buy signal.
- Gold Daily: (BUY 6 July 2026).
The low for Silver this week was $62.76 and the high $66.80, trading around $65.00 at present.
- Silver Monthly: (SELL: 20260430. ( Buy $24.00 in March 2024 to sell in May 2026 $73.13 = 204% Gain in 2 years 2 months). A couple of indicators are pointing up. No buy yet.
- Silver Weekly: (SELL: 09 February 2026). Negative indicators flattening, a few pointing upwards. Almost a buy.
- Silver Daily: BUY (22 July 2026).
Fort Kobbe International Vaults provides secure storage services only and does not buy, sell, broker, recommend , or act as an intermediary in precious metals transactions.
Clients who request an introduction to an independent precious metals supplier may contact our preferred partners by clicking here.
Any purchase or sale is conducted solely between the client and the selected supplier.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks. Well worth a look. watch here
On the Stockcharts.com charts above, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint: watch here
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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