The Expectations Index — the forward-looking number — collapsed to 63.6. Third consecutive monthly decline. Below 80 historically precedes a recession.Consumers now expect 6.1% inflation. That’s up from August. They are not calming down. They are getting angrier.The University of Michigan’s September sentiment reading: 48.1. Down 7% from August. The
The FED speaks: THE 25-BASIS-POINT HIKE IS NOT THE STORY The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage point, taking the federal-funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The immediate effect is largely psychological. Markets react to the headline, algorithms react to the headline, commentators react to the headline, then
I have seen quite a few articles lately saying that rising bond yields are detracting from the gold and silver prices. It appeared to be true on Tuesday night when both gold and silver prices were smashed, only to recover all the losses easily on Wednesday morning. When looking at
His take on where we are relative to the 1973-1974 fractal of the gold chart. If he is correct, and I believe he is, we are at the beginning of a long upward trajectory. I think the same goes for silver, but for different reasons. Gold doubled over the time
China, in my opinion, correctly, is pushing its market towards a mostly physical market. They are removing small traders and superfluous paper trades. The premiums being charged on the contracts are so large that it is hardly worthwhile buying them. The CME, on the other hand, has gone more towards
Van Greyerz writes in his newsletter that gold reserves valued at today’s prices comprise about 0.5% of the value of global wealth, $32 trillion. This represents the value of all the gold mined in human history. As a comparison, the market capitalization of the 12 largest US corporations equals $30
Both silver and gold have once again taken a beating this week. I still stand by my conviction that long-term physical holdings should be held, and short-term tradeable metals, stocks, etc. should be traded. The temptation to sell the physical metals at this time is real. The psychological reason is
Kevin Warsh and the committee have decided to hold rates steady. A good decision, in my opinion, considering current conditions. A radical change in policy appears to be in line. The implementation of five task forces to improve systems currently in place should bring benefits to both the FED and
The fundamental picture for silver has worsened in terms of supply, if anything. The three largest traders have massive short positions on silver, so of course they want the price suppressed. The Shanghai premium for real metal is running at present around 11% greater than the western paper price. On
On COMEX (CME Group), there are GOLD call options expiring December 2026 at strike prices of $10,000, $15,000, and $20,000 per ounce. These are deep out-of-the-money. Gold is trading around $4,500, so $15,000 is about 3.3x current price. Open interest numbers (as of the Feb 2026 reports): Each COMEX gold
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