The story of the week in my opinion is gold and especially silver.

We have often spoken about the difference between paper contract prices and real metal prices.

Silver contracts (futures, options, ETFs) represent a financial claim on silver, not necessarily the metal itself. In most cases, these instruments are settled in cash, and the holder never takes delivery.

Physical silver is the metal in your possession or allocated storage: coins, bars, or industrial-grade silver held on your behalf. There is no counterparty once you hold it outright.

Paper silver can be created in large volumes. Contracts can be and are written far in excess of the available physical supply, which allows price to be influenced by leverage and trading activity. (Approximately 300 plus ounces for every silver ounce).

Physical silver is constrained by mining output, recycling, refining capacity, and logistics. When demand rises suddenly,especially from industrial or sovereign buyers, physical supply can tighten quickly regardless of paper pricing.

Contracts rely on the solvency and rules of the exchange, clearing members, and counterparties. In stressed markets, exchanges may:

• Encourage or force cash settlement
• Change delivery rules
• Raise margin requirements
  

Physical silver carries no settlement risk. Once delivered and paid for, it is not subject to rule changes or third-party performance.

Paper prices are often driven by:

• Speculation and hedging
• Algorithmic and high-frequency trading
• Macro headlines and interest rate expectations
  

Physical prices reflect:

• Actual availability
• Fabrication and delivery costs
• Premiums driven by shortages or long lead times
  

This is why physical premiums can rise even when the quoted futures price is flat—or falling.

Silver contracts are useful for:

• Short-term trading
• Hedging price exposure
• Speculation with leverage

Physical silver is typically held for:

• Long-term wealth preservation
• Insurance against market stress
• Protection from financial system risk

During periods of tight supply:

• Contracts may remain liquid but disconnect from reality
• Physical silver may become difficult to source at any price
  

This is when the difference between “price” and “availability” becomes most obvious.

Paper silver determines the headline price.
Physical silver determines the real-world value when supply is constrained.

Both have a role—but they are not the same asset, and they do not behave the same when markets are under stress.

Now we see the real difference.

The western price being quoted for silver is around $75.00, this is a paper price. The price in Shanghai is almost $100.00. This is deliverable silver which companies can and have to use. 

What happens if Samsung has no or little silver for their batteries, or the military cannot manufacture weaponry, or Tesla cannot make vehicles or AI producers cannot make hardware. 

This is not an option for any of them. In order to produce they need silver. What would you pay to secure supply for your factory?

I know that there would be almost no ceiling on the price I would pay.

I understand that a company paid up to $500.00 per ounce on the weekend to secure supplies. This does not surprise me at all. Wait. This is just the beginning of the run.

On top of this HSBC was caught with an empty vault, when a pension fund called for its silver. This triggered an audit, where it was found that the company decided that no more than 25% of its silver would ever be called on. As a result they leased out the rest, whilst charging storage fees for the leased out silver.

Is the leased silver recoverable? I have my doubts.

Do not forget that any company wanting to export silver from China from Monday will require government permission for every export. Total government control over the entire silver market as China refines about 70% of the world’s silver. In addition only certain refiners will be able to export.

This is a political as well as self preservation maneuver. 

If this flow stops industrial buyers will have huge problems. As Elon Musk says,“This is not good”

My initial prediction is $200.00 per ounce. This silver shortage is extremely serious.

I see that Eagles in the US at present are selling between $83.00 and $84.00 so in Panama it would land at around $88.00. I am still a buyer while they are still available. This is a gift that the paper market is giving western retail buyers.

PLATINUM

SELL: (30 December 2025) We have a sell on Platinum. My feeling is to take accumulated profits and buy in again when the indicators turn.

URANIUM

SELL (30 December 2025) URA. We will reevaluate in the new year.

BITCOIN AND GOLD

Gold outperforms bitcoin  (18 December 2025).  20.31 one ounce gold coins buys one bitcoin, this was over 41 ounces almost a year ago.

ETHUSD: SELL: (14 December 2025)

BTCUSD: SELL: 15 December 2025.  NASDAQ (Cyan).

GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS

06 November 2025 Gold stocks outperform gold.

Silver outperforms silver stocks (08 December 2025). An early signal, let’s see if it holds. Holding very well. The spike high is a worry but the signals are not giving a sell yet.

GOLD AND SILVER

Silver to Gold Ratio

Silver outperforming Gold. (07 November 2025)  Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 62.50:1. Silver is still a great buy at this time, even over $70.00 The ratio is falling showing the strength of silver against gold.

GOLD TO USD

USD outperforms Gold, (30 December 2025).

A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS

Gold’s low of the week was $4,300.00 and the high was $4,548.00 now trading at around $4,341.00.

• Gold Monthly:  is a HOLD. We bought at $1,800.00 in October 2023.  Looking overbought, but it can hold that situation for a while. No sell signal yet.  We need to see a price consistently over $4400.00 for me to relax a little.

• Gold Weekly:  (HOLD 25 August 2025)   Overbought. No sell signals yet.  An unusual pattern. A definitive candlestick sell, then a break free of the resistance.

• Gold Daily: (HOLD: 12 November 2025).  It almost looked like a sell on the daily chart, but the indicators are holding. This is ghost week, where the big players want to take your silver for nothing so that they can make lots of money on your silver in the next couple of weeks.

The low for Silver this week was $70.49 and the high $83.71 trading around $74.58 at present. 

• Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy:  $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought. No sell signal yet.

• Silver Weekly: (HOLD: 25 August 2025). Overbought but still positive indicators.

• Silver Daily: HOLD (10 November 2025).  Silver formed a cup and handle. This pattern completed then the price blasted upwards. Even though it is overbought there are some sell indications which I will ignore until next week.

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.

A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks. 

Well worth a look!

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.