Here is the twenty year history of the CPI (consumer price index). To me, this is a very scary picture. To date, I do not see a flattening or even better, a reduction in the rate.
Perhaps we have not yet given the new administration time for the claimed reduced inflation numbers to work their way through. We also need to distinguish carefully between deflation and reduced economic growth.
My experience of this is that when consumers cannot afford to purchase goods, the manufacturers have to decide between much lower sales or reducing prices. Often, one will get an extra piece or two added to the product, or some other way of holding price and giving the consumer more.
My fear is that the ‘tariffs’ (additional taxes) will cause increased input costs, which will further squeeze manufacturers. Their cost of production will increase as the market slows; this will put them in a position of having to lower selling prices and pay higher prices for inputs. A dangerous place to be, and one that poses the possibility of insolvency of the manufacturer. This would produce the opposite effect of that intended by the Trump administration. Perfect stagflationary conditions.
I hope I am wrong.
I have a further fear and that is the continued declining value of the Dollar. This will make imported items more expensive adding to the cost burden of manufacturers, but also encouraging local purchases.
From an overall portfolio point of view, should one be holding dollars? My opinion for now is to be out of Dollars. The charts are about to give a buy signal on the dollar. How long will this move last?
The tariffs come into effect tomorrow. We will watch the market reaction over the next few weeks.
PLATINUM
SELL: (20 June 2025). We got a buy at $977.00; it was trading at $ 1,312.00. A 34% profit. In view of the profit, we took the sell signal. The price is rolling over, so although we got a premature sell, we were not totally wrong.
URANIUM
SELL: (30 July 2025) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
BUY gold versus Bitcoin (18 July 2025). Gold outperforms Bitcoin. Going sideways at the moment.
ETHUSD: BUY: 2 July 2025. It looks as if it is about to give a sell signal.
BTCUSD: SELL: 19 JULY 2025. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
Gold stocks outperforming gold (23 July 2025).
Silver outperforms silver stocks (17 June 2025).
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Gold outperforming Silver. (Signal given 30 July 2025) When we think that silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold:Silver ratio is 86.36, something is way out of kilter.Silver is an astounding buy at this time or gold is in for an extremely heavy correction.
GOLD TO USD
USD outperforms Gold, (25 July 2025). Gold turning down against USD.
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $3,308.00 | $3,373.00 |
| Silver Price | $36.65 | $39.06 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 90.23:1 | 86.50:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 86.71 | 86.71 |
| Dollar Index | 99.86 | 97.23 |
| Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 44,553.00 Gold price, $3,308.00) | 13.47 | 13.29 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 2.4% | 2.7% |
Gold’s low of the week was $3,268.00 and the high was $3,345.00, now trading at around $3,308.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a hold. We bought in at $1,800.00 in October 2023. Funds flows into the metal are substantial. Looking overbought, but it can hold that situation for a while. No sell signal yet. We do however have a monthly red candle. (Chart below).
- Gold Weekly: (SELL 12 May 2025) The sell indicators were very early, but I see no signs of recovery at this point. We have mixed signals. The indicators are looking more negative.
- Gold Daily: (SELL 28 July 2025).
The low for Silver this week was $36.21 and the high $38.34 trading around $36.66 at present.
- Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy: $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought but positive flows of cash into the metal. ( Chart below).
- Silver Weekly: (SELL 28 July 2025). Spike high previous week
- Silver Daily: SELL (25 July 2025).
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A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:Watch here
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If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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