Interesting: I have a few thoughts on who controls the markets myself.
Because gold and silver are looking as if they may break out, I think it will be of interest to have a look at the relative strength of the indicators we look at in evaluating the current economic situation in which the markets are at this time.
The role of gold is to be the constant against which everything else moves. Unmanipulated it would play this role perfectly. Even manipulated it still provides a great indication of the direction of the economy.
Gold Volatility Index: A measure of the expected volatility on GLD. Generally as volatility gets into the low teens or single digits it becomes more likely that prices increase. At high levels price decreases become more likely. (Currently 15.54, rising from 12.54).
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index: Once again, the lower the number goes the more likely we are to get an increase in the gold price and vice versa. (Currently 39, rising from 10.71).
Gold v Bitcoin: To see where one is better invested we look at the ratio of one to the other. At present the chart indicates a change from, selling gold, and buying BTC to the reverse.
Gold v Ethereum: The situation for the past three months has been Buy ETH Sell Gold, this is in the process of reversing.
Gold v Copper: This indicator tells us about the strength of the economy against gold. Copper has been outperforming gold for the past month. I think we need a while to see if this remains a trend.
Silver v Copper: Interestingly for the past few days silver is outperforming Copper, giving us a counter argument to Gold v Copper above.
Gold v HUI: This compares physical gold to the Gold share Index HUI. Should one be holding physical metal or the gold mining, royalty or exploration stocks? The stocks have given a buy signal against the physical metal.
Gold v Industrials: How is gold performing against the Industrial Index? The past few days gold has outperformed the index showing the slowing of industry. If this lasts it becomes the trend.
Gold v Silver: The silver to gold ratio has been trending lower since mid November and bodes well for silver prices.
Gold V SPX: Gold versus the S&P 500 Large Cap Index. The past week has seen gold outperforming the large cap shares. It looks like just the beginning of the move.
Gold v USD: The usual way this relationship works is the weaker the dollar the higher the gold price goes. This ratio gapped up on Wednesday with gold outstripping the dollar. The downside is that gaps usually fill, meaning a retracement in the future.
Gold v UST10Y: Gold has been outperforming the 10 Year US Treasury Bond for about a month and a half, having had a negative run from May to mid October. This may reverse soon as the indicator looks overbought right now.
Gold v WTIC: Gold compared to the West Texas Oil price. Gold has outperformed oil since the beginning of October. Oil usage and price is probably one of the best indicators of economic activity. With Israel/Hamas, Russia/Ukraine, NorthKorea/South Korea, China/Taiwan and related war preparations it is surprising to see gold outperform oil. The most likely reason is a marked slowdown of economic activity worldwide.
Gold v GDX: Gold compared to the gold stocks index. Gold is losing value quickly against the stock index displaying how the stocks are outperforming the physical metal.
Gold v TIP: Gold v TIP’s (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), gold is outperforming these treasury bonds and although some indicators look overbought it appears that the trend could go on for quite a while.
Silver v SIL: Silver physical v silver stock index. Silver physical is losing momentum against the silver stocks and has been doing so for about a month. This is encouraging from the silver stock perspective as well as the silver physical price perspective.
If you would be interested in charts of the above we can publish them here on a rotating basis. Please let us know.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold compared to Bitcoin gave a signal in favor of gold a few days ago. It is still early days in the life of the signal but it appears that it will become overbought quite quickly, so we will have to keep an eye on the chart.
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
The Gold v HUI index gave us a sell signal yesterday, indicating that the stocks are outperforming the physical gold.
Silver stocks are outperforming physical silver.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver remains stronger than gold this week. In my, opinion silver is one of the most undervalued commodities on the planet. Still and becoming more so as we see the dollar weaken.
GOLD TO USD CHART
Gold has resumed its outperformance of the Dollar. Clearly shown on the chart below.
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
|Gold Miners bullish percent index
|Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 35638.00 Gold price, $2,040.00)
|Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)
Gold’s low of the week was $1,999.00 and the high was $2,052.00, now trading at around $2.036.00.
- The monthly chart for Gold is an out indicator but recovering well. Almost a buy.
- The weekly chart has been a hold for seven weeks. It needs to break $2,085.00 and hold there to confidently start a new leg up.
- The daily chart has been a hold since last week.
The low for Silver this week was $24.30 and the high $25.26, trading around $25.06 at present.
- Silver on the monthly chart finally indicates a buy.
- The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and indicated a buy at the end of last week.
- The daily chart is a hold. Trading halfway up the longer term trading range.
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Please contact us for more information.
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
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If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.