A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (30.10.2025)

© Ben Garrison cartoon

Is Mamdani what the US needs in order to really experience the ravages that socialism/communism brings to humanity? Listening to Mamdani reminds me of socialist economics 101. We have seen time after time the results of his proposed changes. Squalor and devastation of the economic system. Everyone gets poorer. I am shocked that there is such a following of him. I really believed that the American voters were much smarter than that.

I believe that he will relieve New York of its wealthier class who as always are the support of the tax base. They will leave the state and/or the country with their wealth. As Margaret Thatcher said, many years ago, “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money.”

I see a huge tussle moving mayoral candidates around, forcing others to resign, but the polls show Mamdani with a comfortable majority. In any event I am not excited by any of the candidates. Would a shock to the system make other states think twice before putting up a socialist/communist candidate?

  • A report by the Manhattan Institute examined New York City’s vulnerability to out-migration of high earners, given the fact that a relatively small fraction of filers account for a large share of tax revenue. For example: only about 17.3 % of filers (those earning $100,000+ in adjusted gross income) accounted for about 80.2 % of the city’s income‐tax revenue. Manhattan Institute
  • The study modelled scenarios: a 1 % exit of high earners from the city combined with a 5 % decline in certain business tax income would cost about $220 million/year; a 5 % exit scenario could cost ~$933 million/year. Manhattan Institute
  • The authors conclude that because of this dependence on high earners and the mobility of people/businesses, the city is “uniquely vulnerable” to tax-base erosion when high earners leave. Manhattan Institute
  • The broader literature on city‐level taxation also shows: “If a city imposes tax increases that are not matched by public service benefits to those paying the taxes (taxpayers, firms) then those taxpayers/firms may leave, reducing property values, business sales and the tax base.” For example: among four U.S. cities studied, the authors found this tension between city spending, taxation, and business/resident mobility. NBER

What lessons from NYC case

  • Heavy reliance on a small wealthy subset means that policy decisions affecting that subset can have outsized fiscal effects.
  • Tax increases (or perceptions of less favorable business/residency climate) can trigger relocation of either high‐income individuals or business operations.
  • Once the tax base shrinks, the city may face a vicious cycle: fewer revenues → pressure to raise taxes or cut services → further flight.
  • The magnitude of the effect is not trivial: hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

Limitations & caveats

  • These are models and projections, not guaranteed outcomes.
  • Mobility depends on many factors (job availability, housing, quality of life, global economy) beyond just taxation.
  • Even if some high earners leave, the city might compensate via new arrivals, business innovation, or growth in other tax streams.
  • This is about tax base erosion, not full systemic collapse.

SELL: (14 October 2025). The run-up in the Platinum price has been spectacular; a correction was to be expected, and our system got us out with profit. The spike low may portend an early recovery. No buy signal yet.

$PLAT Platinium Continuous 2025-10-29

SELL: (15 October 2025) URA. Looks like it is recovering, no buy signal yet.

URA global X Uranium ETF 2025-10-29

BUY Bitcoin versus Gold  (23 October 2025). Bitcoin outperforms Gold.

$BTCUSD:$GOLD Bitcoin to US dollar/Gld CRYPT   October 29, 2025

ETHUSD: BUY: (25 October 2025). Dicey small uptrend

$ETHUSD Ethereum to US Dollar October 29,  2025

BTCUSD: BUY: 23 October 2025.  NASDAQ (Cyan). Nasdaq and BTC are diverging.

$BTCUSD Bitcoin to US dollar CRYPT  October 29, 2025

26 September 2025 Gold outperforms gold stocks.

$GOLD:GDX Gold - Contract (EOD)/VanEck  October 29, 2025

Silver outperforms silver stocks (18 September 2025). Looking overbought but no change indicated yet.

$SILVER - SIL Silver- Continuous Contract (EOD) Global X Silver Miners ETF  October 29, 2025

Silver to Gold Ratio

Gold outperforming Silver. Signal given (15 October 2025). When we think that silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 80.00, something is way out of kilter. Silver is an astounding buy at this time, or gold is in for an extremely heavy correction. Love seeing the ratio move in the right direction.

$GOLD:$SILVER Gold Continuous Contract - (EOD) Silver - continuous   October 29, 2025

USD outperforms Gold, (22 October 2025). 

$GOLD:$USD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME   October 29,  2025

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$4,011.00$4,136.00
Silver Price$48.87$49.28
Gold:Silver ratio 82.03:183.90:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index55.5466.67
Dollar Index99.5199.07
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 47,682.00 Gold price, $4,011.00)11.8811.24
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)2.9%2.7%

Gold’s low of the week was $3,886.00, and the high was $4,108.00, now trading at around $4,015.00.

Gold Monthly:  is a HOLD. We bought in at $1,800.00 in October 2023.  Looking overbought, but it can hold that situation for a while. No sell signal yet.  A spike high has formed (a sell signal), we have to wait for the end of the month for confirmation. No sell yet.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract montly,  October 29,  2025

Gold Weekly:  (HOLD 25 August 2025)   Overbought. No sell signals yet. I am worried about the tweezers’ tops that have formed.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract weekly,  October 29,  2025

Gold Daily: (SELL: 20 October 2025).

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract daily,  October 29,  2025

The low for Silver this week was $45.54, and the high $48.92, trading around $49.30 at present. 

Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy:  $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought. ( Chart below). No sell signal yet. Horrendous spike high. Potential sell signal, we have to wait for confirmation.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract monthly,  October 29,  2025

Silver Weekly: (HOLD: 25 August 2025). Overbought but still positive indicators. Watch for a sell after the spike high.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract weekly,   October 29,  2025

Silver Daily: SELL (16 October 2025).

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract daily,   October 29,  2025

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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