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A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (27.06.2024)

“For investors bearish on U.S. economic growth, like us, Gold is having an amazing run this year. Year-to-date, Gold (GLD) is up 21.7% versus up just 1.4% for the S&P 500.” HEDGEYE

For traders moving in and out of the market, GLD is fine, from my perspective for any long-term plan, I would choose physical with no third-party risk.

gold teeth_Hedgeye cartoon_06.17.2016
© Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC with permission granted by Hedgeye, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited

When considering assets to invest in as a hedge against stock market failures and the devaluation of the dollar, several options come to mind:

  1. Precious Metals:
    • Silver: Often seen as undervalued with potential for significant appreciation because of its price suppression and  smaller unit value.
    • Gold: Easily storable and has great upside potential. Although fractional gold products like Goldbacks come with high premiums, this becomes irrelevant as the price of gold increases.
  2. Cryptocurrencies:
    • Despite my reservations, I believe holding a reasonable amount of cryptocurrency is wise. The main advantages include:
      • Ease of transactions without third-party interference
      • A reasonable amount of anonymity
      • Ease of transport across borders
      • Volatility, which, while a double-edged sword, can also offer opportunities.
  3. Property:
    • Concerns:
      • You never truly own property due to local government rates and taxes, which, if unpaid, can lead to confiscation.
      • Escalating rates and taxes can make property unaffordable, potentially leading to its loss.
      • Government decrees can prevent ownership or result in property confiscation.
    • Exceptions:
      • Agricultural Farmland: Viewed as a survival investment, not primarily for return.
      • Selected Timber Farming: A long-term investment (25+ years) with no pressure to sell in down markets, as trees grow more valuable over time.
  4. Commodities:
    • Investing in commodity-type stocks carries third-party risks (company, commodity, stock market, and stock-specific risks).
    • Whiskey: Direct investment in well-selected whiskey can mature and gain value over time, though it also carries risks.
  5. Fine Art and Collectibles:
    • Fine Art: Requires expert assistance or personal expertise to ensure sound investments.
    • Collectibles: Items like coins, stamps, cars, watches, and jewelry etc. can be valuable, though their values can fluctuate.
  6. Private Companies and New Ventures:
    • Investments should be scaled within your portfolio to mitigate risk.
  7. Peer-to-Peer Lending, Hedge Funds, and Money Managers:
    • Careful risk mitigation is essential. It’s worth noting that while managers often prosper, investors may struggle with lower returns.

Given the unpredictable nature of markets, diversification across asset classes and geographical locations is sensible.

Lastly, it’s important to remember that no fiat currency has outlasted gold as a ‘monetary’ asset. Most fiat currencies don’t survive beyond 40 years, and the US dollar appears to be in decline, evidenced by economic challenges and systemic issues.

Please note, that none of this is advice—just my thoughts. Do your own research and make informed decisions.

BITCOIN AND GOLD

BTC:GLD below shows gold outperforming Bitcoin. Some indicators are turning up, but no switch yet.

$BTCUSD:$GOLD Bitcoin to US dollar/Gld CRYPT 27 June 2024

ETHUSD we are out and it still looks weak. No immediate signs of a turnaround.

$ETHUSD Ethereum to US Dollar 27 June 2024

BTCUSD we are out. It appears to be making a reverse head and shoulders pattern which if it completes portends higher prices. Right now the indicators look negative.

GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS

Physical gold is outperforming the stocks. I am not excited by the sideways movement of this chart. We’ll see how it gets resolved.

$GOLD:$HUI Gold- Continuous Contract (EOD) Gold Bugs Index - NYSE - 27 June 202

Physical silver continues to outperform silver stocks. Demand for physical silver is growing continually and is being reflected in the physical stocks comparison.

The spike high on the 10th of  June is still cause for concern regarding a reversal. The indicators are pointing down but there is no sell signal yet. I anticipate a reversal on Friday or Monday.

$SILVER - SIL Silver- Continuous Contract (EOD) Global X Silver Miners ETF 27 June 2024

GOLD AND SILVER

Whilst the indicator still shows gold outperforming silver the ratio has been quite erratic. This appears to be resolving positively for the trend to continue.

$GOLD:$SILVER Gold Continuous Contract - (EOD) Silver - continuous 27 June 2024

GOLD TO USD

Gold v USD  The chart below shows that the inverse correlation that usually exists between the dollar and gold has broken and since April correlation between them generally exists. (Gold = red/black candlesticks. Green = Dollar). The dollar for now appears to be outperforming gold but the correlation appears to still be intact.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 27 June 2024

A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$2,322.00$2,339.00
Silver Price$29.16$30.12
Gold:Silver ratio79.07:177.54:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index78.5778.57
Dollar Index105.70105.49
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 39,110.00 Gold price, $2,322.00)16.8416.60
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.4%3.3%

Gold’s low of the week was $2,293.00 and the high was $2,337.00, now trading at around $2,322.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold is a hold. We bought in at $1,800.00 in October ‘23 and have held it to date. It looks overbought but the indicators are mainly positive. (Chart Below).
  • The weekly chart remains out. I see diminishing funds flow in but with no impact on the price yet.
  • The daily chart, we are out, price is consolidating. Making a head and shoulders pattern. Let’s see which way it resolves.  If it resolves downward $2,150.00 is a possibility

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 27 June 2024

The low for Silver this week was $28.56 and the high $29.72, trading around $29.00 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates a hold. The signals look positive for now. (Chart Below).
  • The silver weekly chart is a hold. It looks overbought and seems to be running out of steam. It has touched $28.73 and may bounce from here.
  • The silver daily chart indicates out. $28.00 is a critical level from which I would expect a bounce up.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 27 June 2024

Our partner has stock of both Gold, Silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.

Goldbacks Fort Kobbe Vaults


On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are 

system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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