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A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (26.10.2023)

Just to touch on the protests in Panama for a moment.

The protests ongoing here are amongst the largest experienced in Panama. The reasons for protests are firstly the contract extension for the Minera Panama Copper mine and secondly the corruption in the country.

There have been some acts of violence and looting. The police have been quite sensitive about protecting politicians and their residences. They have reacted with teargas and firing on protesters. I believe that this is counterproductive as long as the protests are peaceful.

I agree with strict enforcement when damage and looting take place. Yesterday there were protests at the entrances to Panama Pacifico, but protestors did not enter the area and were well contained outside the project. Our opinion is that the protestors will tire and normalcy will return soon.

Panama Demonstrations October2023

Roman Empire vs USA today

Much of the information below is from Chat GPT. When I ask it to compare to the USA today I get a convoluted twisted reply so I have ‘moderated’ its response to fit my estimation of reality. My responses are in italic bold.

Here is Chat GPT’s disclaimer: “Drawing a direct and one-to-one comparison between the last months of the Roman Empire and the present-day United States can be challenging due to the vast differences in time, culture, political systems, and geopolitical contexts. However, we can identify some general points of comparison, keeping in mind that these are highly simplified and should be approached with caution.” In addition it did not respond to my requests regarding military comparisons.

The last few months of the Roman Empire were marked by a series of events that ultimately led to its downfall. The Roman Empire had been in a state of decline for several centuries, but the final months saw a culmination of military, financial, and political problems that hastened its collapse. I’ll provide a brief overview of each of these aspects during this period:

The USA has given the illusion to its residents and western allies over many years of being as pure as the driven snow. Its opposition in any sphere, militarily, economically or politically, will tell a different story. 

The change has been particularly noticeable over the past ten to fifteen years, accelerating since ‘COVID’.

  • Military Activity:
    • Barbarian Invasions: One of the major challenges faced by the Roman Empire in its waning years was the continuous pressure from barbarian tribes, notably the Visigoths, Vandals, and Huns. In 410 AD, the Visigoths, led by Alaric, sacked Rome. In 455 AD, the Vandals under Genseric invaded and plundered the city of Rome as well.
    • If we consider the opening of the border an invasion, which it is, millions of undocumented people have been assisted, fed, and transported into  the United States. The purpose of this ‘invasion’ is still to be determined.
  •  Europe and the UK are in a similar position. The immigration practices of many nations are not conducive to maintaining the character and substance of the original country and the people not going through the official naturalization process should not be encouraged to stay and should be discouraged from coming in the first place.  For an assessment of US military power please look at this site, particularly towards the end. https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/executive-summary
  • Loss of Territories: The Western Roman Empire had lost significant territories in previous years, and by the last few months, it was reduced to a mere fraction of its former size. The legions were undermanned and often led by ineffective or corrupt commanders.
  • Because of weak leadership, deliberate or not, the US is now being perceived as weak. Countries that previously would not have dared to challenge the US are doing so with impunity. Look at Russia, China, Iran, etc. The US, unless it can introduce its CBDC financial system will not have the funds to maintain its at least seven hundred and fifty offshore bases. This will lead to diminution of its global power. In addition COVID and its concomitant ‘vaccines’ have substantially compromised the military. (Another area for investigation and consequences).
  • https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/11/army-surgeon-says-military-ignored-her-warnings-over-covid-19-vaccine-injuries/ https://www.ronjohnson.senate.gov/2022/2/sen-johnson-to-secretary-austin-has-dod-seen-an-increase-in-medical-diagnoses-among-military-personnel
  • Financial Activity:
    • Economic Decline: The Roman economy was strained by excessive taxation, inflation, and a dependence on slave labor. The constant need to fund the military and the bureaucracy was a major drain on the empire’s finances.
    • Almost nothing to say here as the parallels are self-evident. Taxation at every turn is endemic. Salary taxes, capital gains taxes, general sales taxes, import taxes, export taxes, property taxes, company taxes, licensing taxes …. Not to mention the immense borrowings, (never to be repaid).
    • Devaluation of Currency: The Roman government debased its currency by reducing the silver content of the denarius. This contributed to inflation and a loss of confidence in the currency, further destabilizing the economy.
    • The FED just prints currency into existence. Mises institute defines inflation based on the amount of currency pushed into the financial system. With the trillions ‘printed’ into existence real inflation is far higher than is being reflected by the department of statistics. This contributes to inflation and loss of confidence. We wish we still had at least some silver coins still in circulation in our hands.
  • Political Activity:
    • Ineffective Leadership: The last Roman emperors in the West were often weak, short-lived, or puppets controlled by various factions. There was a lack of effective central authority.
    • As we learn more we find that votes are ‘adjusted’ by Dominion machines, additional voting papers are added into the system as well as other non standard procedures applied. This is just the beginning of the subterfuge. Blackmailed or compromised politicians and others in positions of power are easily manipulated. Watch the puppet show. https://www.westernjournal.com/government-admits-dominion-voting-machines-vulnerable-hacking-16-states/ https://thedispatch.com/article/does-a-report-prove-that-dominion/
    • Division of the Empire: The Roman Empire had been divided into Eastern and Western Roman Empires in the 3rd century. The Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) was generally more stable and prosperous than the Western Roman Empire, and this division weakened the Western half.
    • I don’t expect a sudden collapse of the US Empire, although the collapse has been going on for a long time already. A sudden collapse could be engineered in order to leave the population without a financial system at all, so that we beg for them to institute their total control, CBDC, system. A system from hell. 

In the last months of the Roman Empire, the Western Roman Emperor Romulus Augustulus was overthrown in 476 AD by the Germanic chieftain Odoacer. This event is often considered the traditional date for the fall of the Western Roman Empire. The Roman Senate sent a request to the Eastern Roman Emperor Zeno to appoint a new ruler, but Zeno decided not to reinstate the Western Roman Empire, effectively marking the end of the Western Roman Empire.

The similarities here are not inconsiderable either. Joe Biden seems totally unable to lead, let alone find his way to the microphone and back, so he is clearly not leading the country. As far as Trump is concerned, he has a large support contingent but many Republicans and RINO’s are averse to his reinstatement. Without clear unambiguous succession the empire looks weak and vulnerable. The people are antagonistic towards one another, consensus is difficult or impossible to obtain. This may mark the end of the US Empire.

It’s important to note that the decline and fall of the Roman Empire were not solely due to the factors mentioned above. The decline was a complex process that unfolded over several centuries, with numerous internal and external pressures. The fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD marked the end of ancient Roman rule in the western Mediterranean, while the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) continued to exist for nearly a millennium until the fall of Constantinople in 1453.

As in Rome, the above factors are not the only ones, by far, contributing to its fall. Antagonizing the rest of the world by introducing FATCA whereby everyone else has to report to the US. Strict Tax controls on income earned outside the US. Interference in the local affairs of countries. Misuse of the SWIFT system for political ends. Confiscation of assets of private citizens of countries which are not in favor at present. Forcing vassal states into war for political ends (Ukraine) and far more too numerous to mention.

Irrespective of Janet Yellen believing that the US can fight wars on multiple fronts and win, in my opinion, flawed as it may be, they underestimate the intelligence and resolve of the rest of the world and the desire to free itself from the US. Benevolent rulership becomes tolerable. Arrogant rulership results in revolt.

Is it unreasonable to expect a backlash at some point in time?

Bitcoin and Gold

Bitcoin has broken the resistance line against gold and appears to be holding for now. My thinking on Bitcoin is that if left alone by governments it would stabilize and become a really usable currency. I wonder if it will be left alone.

$BTCUSD:$GOLD Bitcoin to US dollar/Gold CRYPT 19 October 2023

Gold and Silver Stocks

I looked back ten years of comparison between Berkshire A shares which do not pay dividends, in order to get an idea of if it would have been better to invest in Berkshire over the period or just buy physical gold, put it away and allow it to accumulate ‘value’. The chart below shows the result.

20231023 BRK Gold 10 Year

What about over a period of twenty years? The results are almost identical.

20231023 BRK GLD 20 years

Gold and Silver

Here is a fun chart from goldswitzerland.com telling us that US treasuries are more volatile than gold. The first time in forty five years. That is a real worry. Below is a chart of gold against the ‘safest’ asset in the world, treasuries.

US Treasuries are now more volatile.Oct 2023

When switching out of physical gold or silver to cash, treasuries or stocks, the risks should be considered. Although every investment carries risk, at present the risks of cash are: currency risk, government or political risk, inflationary risk, banking risk etc. 

In terms of stocks: broker risk, inflation risk, delivery risk, political risk, mining risk, management risk, commodity risk, war risk, etc.

To be expected, with higher risk come higher returns and it looks like we are beginning to see this after a dismal run.

Gold to US Chart

Even though the DXY is at 106.64 and gold at $1,979.00 Gold at this moment is outperforming the dollar. I expect that over time this will continue.

$GOLD:$USD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 26 October 2023

A look at the Gold and Silver Charts

TodayLast Week
Gold price $1,979.00 $1,952.00
Silver price$22.80$22.73
Gold:Silver ratio86.82:185.79:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index17.8617.86
Dollar Index106.65106.12
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 33048.00 Gold price, $1,979.00)16.7017.17
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.7%3.7%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,953.00 and the high was $1,993.00, now trading at around $1,979.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold is an out indicator but recovering well.
  • The weekly chart is in a buy but looks over bought here and is fighting resistance at this price.
  • The daily chart is a hold. It looks a little overbought right now.
$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 26 October 2023

The low for Silver this week was $22.44 and the high $23.33, trading around $22.74 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates out and most indicators are still negative.
  • The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and is indicating out. The buy indicators have not triggered yet.
  • The daily chart is a hold but is looking toppy.
$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 26 October 2023

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama.

Please contact us for more information.

Goldbacks Fort Kobbe Vaults Panama

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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