A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (22.02.2024)

GDP_Job-hours Hedgeye cartoon
© Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC with permission granted by Hedgeye, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited

I have appended a Mises article on GDP and its effectiveness as a measure of the growth or otherwise of a country.

My constant complaint is that government spending, mostly unproductive, is included in the GDP calculation. 

According to GAB AI government spending in the US in 2021 was 20.9% of GDP (one in five) and in 2021, 14.5% of employed people (Chat GPT says over 20,000,000) worked for the government. I look forward to seeing these figures updated.

If we remove government spending, how well is your country really doing? Why is that figure almost totally unavailable from usual sources?

Governments tend to grow continually, particularly when elections are to be held in the relatively near future. Never to be trimmed again.

If we look at war spending, it is added to GDP. Assume your country is being decimated. How can this be net growth?

I am not saying all government employees are useless at all. My observation is that the tendency for misallocation of effort, resources, labor, equipment, man hours etc. and the opportunity for corruption within government is inevitable. 

The larger a department the more likely it is to happen.

I have observed this in country after country.

Read more about here

Inflation - Paycheck small-cartoon

If we think inflation is on its way out, I think we need to reevaluate our assumption!

With debt growing at the rate shown in the chart below, demographics in decline, unregistered illegals being supported financially, medically and with housing, I see the government taking on more debt, there being more money printing and therefore more inflation.

What will protect us from this tsunami of ‘paper’ fiat currency? 

In my opinion only hard assets. We will be wooed with CBDC’s (Central Bank Digital Currency) which is similar to paper currency, except much worse, in that it is totally controlled and controlling.

The more I read about the CBDC control policies the more afraid and reluctant I am to adopt it. I feel that we will have a bumpy transition.

The FRED chart below is a reflection of debt securities issued. The exponential increase is really scary and not looking like it will stop here. This looks to me like deliberate destruction of the system.

Fred_graph-1950 to 2020


It appears that Bitcoin has reached its zenith for now. The indicators are looking way overbought and a sell signal looks imminent.

$BTCUSD:$GOLD Bitcoin to US dollar/Gld CRYPT 22 February 2024

Bitcoin to gold reflects bitcoin looking toppy in comparison to gold. A reversal appears to be in place but no signal of gold outperforming bitcoin at present. The chart is almost identical to the one above.


The chart below of gold compared to the HUI index shows that the gold stocks are looking slightly stronger, having given a sell gold buy gold stocks signal today.

$GOLD:$HUI Gold- Continuous Contract (EOD) Gold Bugs Index - NYSE - 22 February 2024

When I look at the Silver:Sil (Physical silver to Silver stock ETF) chart it looks overbought, but stocks are not outperforming the physical metal yet.


As the CPI has run away since 1971 when the US was taken off the gold standard. Gold to a greater or lesser extent has been allowed to track the devaluation of the dollar by having the gold price ‘match’ the depreciation.

As discussed in previous letters, this tracks the government’s notion of the CPI. If real Shadowstats numbers are used the price of gold in dollars would be much higher.


Silver outperformed gold this week and our system showed a sell gold buy silver signal. This appears to be reversing, but is by no means certain. We wait for the signals.

$GOLD:$SILVER Gold Continuous Contract - (EOD) Silver - continuous 22 February 2024


We have early indications on our system of the dollar weakening against the basket of currencies. This may explain the slight strength of gold in the market so far this week.

$USD US dollar - cash settle 22 February 2024

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$2,029.00$1,999.00
Silver Price$23.01$22.66
Gold:Silver ratio88.05:188.20:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index17.8617.86
Dollar Index103.79104.52
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 38764.00 Gold price, $2,029.00)19.1019.23
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.1%4.1%

Gold’s low of the week was $2,009.00 and the high was $2,035.00, now trading at around $2.028.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold  is a hold. I am still concerned with the spike high produced by the sharp increase in price in December, followed swiftly by the reversal. Most indicators are still positive but trending negative. Our buy in was at $1,800.00.
  • The weekly chart remains a hold. The spike high still needs careful watching. A number of indicators are negative but no sell has been indicated yet.
  • The daily chart shows us out on gold. If the light uptrend persists today it will probably trigger a buy.
$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 22 February 2024

The low for Silver this week was $22.75 and the high $23.45, trading around $23.02 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates out.
  • The silver weekly chart indicates out.  Funds are still flowing in. No buy signal yet. 
  • The daily chart gave a buy early this week. It is struggling to hold onto this position. This is normal in early trades.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 22 February 2024

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.

Goldback FortKobbeVaults Panama

A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks. 

Well worth a look!

On the charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video:

Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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