I have seen quite a few articles lately saying that rising bond yields are detracting from the gold and silver prices.
It appeared to be true on Tuesday night when both gold and silver prices were smashed, only to recover all the losses easily on Wednesday morning.
When looking at the real numbers a story supporting continued price increases emerges (Based on 10.7% inflation Shadowstats template calculation).
| Tenor | Nominal yield | TIPS real yield | Real yield using trailing 3.4% CPI* | Real yield if 10.7% persists* |
| 2-year | 4.19% | N/A | +0.76% | −5.88% |
| 5-year | 4.37% | +2.10% | +0.94% | −5.72% |
| 10-year | 4.71% | +2.41% | +1.27% | −5.41% |
| 30-year | 5.28% | +3.03% | +1.82% | −4.90% |
Persistent negative real interest rates create a powerful structural tailwind for precious metals, but do not guarantee continuous price appreciation.
Gold and silver can still fall substantially during periods of:
- dollar strength;
- forced liquidation;
- rising real yields;
- deleveraging;
- changes in futures positioning;
- margin increases;
- central-bank intervention;
- recessionary liquidity shocks.
But if negative real rates persist while nominal debt continues expanding and the money supply continues growing, the longer-term asymmetry becomes increasingly interesting.
Treasury announced that it would at least double its buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, targeting roughly 10–30-year maturities. The announcement came after the 30-year yield had reached about 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007.
Gold gained roughly 3% and silver about 3.3% during Wednesday’s move.
So rather than:
Higher bond yields are killing gold.
the more interesting interpretation is:
When bond yields became sufficiently high to threaten the Treasury’s financing costs, Treasury announced greater long-end liquidity support, which markets interpreted as evidence that policymakers were unwilling to remain passive as long-term borrowing costs became increasingly disruptive. Gold and silver immediately responded.
Therefore as inflation remains high, (and I expect it to go higher), debt service becomes more difficult, so long term yields rise. The government then intervened to contain yields. This makes real yields more negative. The attractiveness of REAL money is enhanced.
Yesterday’s market reaction provides unusually clean evidence of it. Gold didn’t rally because the economic fundamentals suddenly improved. It rallied because The United States is attempting to maintain positive real yields while carrying rapidly growing debt, large primary deficits and expanding interest costs. If those real yields become economically or fiscally intolerable, policymakers are likely to choose some combination of accommodation, financial repression and currency debasement. Gold provides insurance against that policy outcome.
Legend of Colors
Blue – Official CPU
Orange – Shadow Stats stylr calculation
Green – M2 growth
As long as interest rates remain substantially negative, inflationary pressure remains embedded in the system, tariffs continue to raise costs, the money supply continues to expand, government deficits remain enormous, then the case for monetary metals remains strong.
Higher bond yields are a greater interest expense, which creates a larger deficit, which forces a larger borrowing need, which creates a need for more treasuries, which creates more pressure for higher interest rates. Where does it stop?
Higher yields may attract more buyers but then exacerbate the interest burden, making the debt problem more onerous.
The main question is why are rates rising? It is because traditional buyers see the dollar weakening and more bonds being issued.
Currently, the case for continuation of the above problems remains in force. I see continued monetary and fiscal expansion; war on at least two fronts continues; replenishment of used munitions and equipment becomes necessary; the jobs market, despite headline employment figures, is not reflecting for example, people working two jobs, people taking jobs way below their qualifications, etc.
Despite the negatives, I feel that continued accumulation of monetary metals is one of the better methods of self-protection. In my opinion, bigger institutions are weighing the cost of investing at negative rates against holding monetary metals not producing income, but holding or gaining in price against inflation.
Just for fun:
A 20 year chart plotting gold against Berkshire Hathaway. Just buying the gold and burying it underground compared to serious industry and investment prowess. A Reminder that BRK does not pay dividends either, the same as gold.
PLATINUM
HOLD: On the Daily chart (06 July 2026).
URANIUM
HOLD (03 August 2026) URA. Turning: watch carefully.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms Bitcoin (24 July 2026). 15.14 One ounce gold coins buy one bitcoin; this was over 41 ounces in August 2025. Ratio almost reversing.
ETHUSD: HOLD: ( 11 June 2026)
BTCUSD: BUY: 17 August 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
22 July 2026: Gold stocks outperform gold. An excellent indicator that the gold price to rise as well.
Silver stocks outperform silver (03 August 2026).
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Silver outperforming Gold. (22 July 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 67.93:1.
GOLD TO USD
Gold outperforms USD, (04 July 2026).
Copper (HOLD 22 July 2026) Looking precarious.
GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,472.00 | $4,394.00 |
| Silver Price | $66.82 | $65.25 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 66.91:1 | 67.40:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 60.81 | 52.70 |
| Dollar Index | 98.77 | 99.84 |
| Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 53,135.00 Gold price, 4,472.00) | 11.88 | 12.28 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Mannarino Market Index | 288.0 | 290.0 |
| Buffet Index -strongly overvalued markets 2.1 standard deviations above normal | 195% | 219% |
| 10 Year Yield | 4.70% | 4.64% |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,324.00, and the high was $4,525.00, now trading at around $4,485.00.
- Gold Monthly: is an OUT. (25 March 2026). Looking more positive. Signals turning positive.
- Gold Weekly: (BUY: 13 August 2026) A very early buy signal.
- Gold Daily: (BUY 6 July 2026).
The low for Silver this week was $62.09 and the high was $67.52, trading around $67.41 at present.
- Silver Monthly: (SELL: 20260430. ( Buy $24.00 March 2024 to Sell May 2026 $73.13 = 204% Gain in 2 years 2 months). A couple of indicators pointing up. No buy yet.
- Silver Weekly: (BUY: 20 August 2026).
- Silver Daily: HOLD (22 July 2026).
Fort Kobbe International Vaults provides secure storage services only and does not buy, sell, broker, recommend, or act as an intermediary in precious metals transactions.
Clients who request an introduction to an independent precious metals supplier may contact our preferred partners by clicking here.
Any purchase or sale is conducted solely between the client and the selected supplier.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks. Well worth a look. watch here
On the Stockcharts.com charts above, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint: watch here
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
RECENT COMMENTS