Just for interest sake, German property prices have fallen from an 8% increase to a 15% decrease, a combined 23% drop. I worry about property investment at this time for a number of reasons. I may be totally misguided (wrong), but I believe property is way overvalued generally across the western economies.
If currencies collapse property prices are vulnerable. In order to bring down inflation interest rates should rise, detrimental to property prices.
Municipalities are desperate for funding so rates and taxes will rise, crippling land owners who will be at risk for property confiscation.
Assume inflationary conditions continue, which I think they may for a while. Logically property prices should rise. Will they outpace or even just keep up with inflation?
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Bitcoin is just holding in a hold against gold. The expectation that the price would soar after the ETF’s were authorized were unfounded, but may well happen in time. I still believe that this gives the big guys an opportunity to further manipulate the prices.
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
Both physical gold and physical silver outperformed the stocks this week as can be seen below.
GOLD AND SILVER
Below is a chart of the past twenty years of inflation. This is the government rate of inflation and leads us into our look at inflation related gold and silver prices. Look at the acceleration in the rate of inflation since 2020.
The CPI from shadowstats below starkly points out the huge gap between ‘government inflation’ and Real, Shadowstats inflation. The cumulative effect of the difference is substantial as one can see in the charts below.
The latest data I can find on inflation adjusted gold and silver prices concludes at the end of 2020. From Bullion Star.
Firstly long term charts for Gold and silver dating back to 1720 based on the US Bureau of Labour Statistics figures.
The all-time high inflation adjusted price according to this chart was $3,045.00 in 1980. Considering the high real inflation rate between 2020 and 2024 the real inflation adjusted price of gold today would be much lower than the $2,000.00
Inflation adjusted, the highest price of silver was $140.85 in 1980.
If we want real numbers we should use real statistics produced by Shadowstats.com Alternate CPI.
The change in figures produced is certainly eye opening.
Here we have a maximum price for gold in 1980 of $20,900.00. Note the generally downward slope of the gold price, except for the 1980 period. (no manipulation here?).
Using the same Shadowstats inflation database the real inflation adjusted price of silver reached $966.77 in 1980.
Once again, after three years (2020 to 2023) of unbelievable inflation, the spot price languishes around $23.00.
In my opinion one of the most undervalued assets on earth.
GOLD TO USD
When a country’s interest payments exceed defense, discretionary, medicare and social security spending, it is time to take note and seriously plan for a worst case economic situation.
Why is this comment under the gold to US dollar section? Both will be affected as this situation unfolds. Gold positively and the dollar negatively.
A continuation will see the eventual demise of the dollar and the impossibility of continuing the suppression of the precious metals.
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHART
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $2,015.00 | $2,033.00 |
| Silver Price | $22.61 | $23.07 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 89.12:1 | 88.17:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 35.71 | 50.00 |
| Dollar Index | 103.39 | 102.20 |
| Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 37195.00 Gold price, $2,015.00) | 18.45 | 18.55 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics | 4.1% | 3.4% |
Gold’s low of the week was $2,002.00 and the high was $2,059.00, now trading at around $2.015.00.
- The monthly chart for Gold is a hold. I am still concerned with the spike high produced by the sharp increase in price last month, followed swiftly by the reversal.
- The weekly chart remains a hold. The spike high still needs careful watching. None of the indicators give a sell indication yet, except for the rate of change. If anything, funds are flowing into the market.
- The daily chart shows us out of the market with most indicators pointing down.
The low for Silver this week was $22.51 and the high $23.33, trading around $22.60 at present.
- Silver on the monthly chart indicates a long awaited sell.
- The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and changes almost every week at present. We stay out of physical silver.
- The daily chart remains out.
Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video:
Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
RECENT COMMENTS