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A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (18.01.2024)

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Just for interest sake, German property prices have fallen from an 8% increase to a 15% decrease, a combined 23% drop. I worry about property investment at this time for a number of reasons. I may be totally misguided (wrong), but I believe property is way overvalued generally across the western economies.

If currencies collapse property prices are vulnerable. In order to bring down inflation interest rates should rise, detrimental to property prices.

Municipalities are desperate for funding so rates and taxes will rise, crippling land owners who will be at risk for property confiscation.

Assume inflationary conditions continue, which I think they may for a while. Logically property prices should rise. Will they outpace or even just keep up with inflation?

German Residential Property Prices
BITCOIN AND GOLD

Bitcoin is just holding in a hold against gold. The expectation that the price would soar after the ETF’s were authorized were unfounded, but may well happen in time. I still believe that this gives the big guys an opportunity to further manipulate the prices.

$BTCUSD:$GOLD Bitcoin to US Dollar - January 18 2024

GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS

Both physical gold and physical silver outperformed the stocks this week as can be seen below.

$GOLD:$HUI Gold - Continuous contract January 17 2024

$SILVER Silver-Continuous Contract - January 17 2024
GOLD AND SILVER

Below is a chart of the past twenty years of inflation. This is the government rate of inflation and leads us into our look at inflation related gold and silver prices. Look at the acceleration in the rate of inflation since 2020.

$CPI Consumer Price Index - 2023

The CPI from shadowstats below starkly points out the huge gap between ‘government inflation’ and Real, Shadowstats inflation. The cumulative effect of the difference is substantial as one can see in the charts below.

Consumer Inflattion - Official vs ShaadowStats

The latest data I can find on inflation adjusted gold and silver prices concludes at the end of 2020. From Bullion Star

Firstly long term charts for Gold and silver dating back to 1720 based on the US Bureau of Labour Statistics figures.

The all-time high inflation adjusted price according to this chart was $3,045.00 in 1980. Considering the high real inflation rate between 2020 and 2024 the real inflation adjusted price of gold today would be much lower than the $2,000.00

Gold vs CPI 2020

Inflation adjusted, the highest price of silver was $140.85 in 1980.

Silver vs CPI 2020

If we want real numbers we should use real statistics produced by Shadowstats.com Alternate CPI.

The change in figures produced is certainly eye opening.

Here we have a maximum price for gold  in 1980 of $20,900.00. Note the generally downward slope of the gold price, except for the 1980 period. (no manipulation here?).

Gold vs sGS- ALT

Using the same Shadowstats inflation database the real inflation adjusted price of silver reached $966.77 in 1980.

Once again after three years (2020 to 2023) of crazy inflation the spot price languishes around $23.00.

In my opinion one of the most undervalued assets on earth.

Silver vs SGS- ALT
GOLD TO USD

When a country’s interest payments exceed defense, discretionary, medicare and social security spending, it is time to take note and seriously plan for a worst case economic situation. 

Why is this comment under the gold to US dollar section? Both will be affected as this situation unfolds. Gold positively and the dollar negatively.

A continuation will see the eventual demise of the dollar and the impossibility of continuing the suppression of the precious metals.

Spending on Interest to Exceed
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHART

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$2,015.00$2,033.00
Silver Price$22.61$23.07
Gold:Silver ratio89.12:188.17:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index35.7150.00
Dollar Index103.39102.20
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 37195.00 Gold price, $2,015.00)18.4518.55
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics 4.1%3.4%

Gold’s low of the week was $2,002.00 and the high was $2,059.00, now trading at around $2.015.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold  is a hold. I am still concerned with the spike high produced by the sharp increase in price last month, followed swiftly by the reversal. 
  • The weekly chart remains a hold. The spike high still needs careful watching. None of the indicators give a sell indication yet, except for the rate of change. If anything, funds are flowing into the market.
  • The daily chart shows us out of the market with most indicators pointing down.
$GOLD Gold-Continuous Contract - January 17 2024

The low for Silver this week was $22.51 and the high $23.33, trading around $22.60 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates a long awaited sell.
  • The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and changes almost every week at present. We stay out of physical silver.
  • The daily chart remains out.
$SILVER Silver-Continuous Contract - January 17 2024

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.

Goldback FortKobbeVaults Panama

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video:

Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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