FortKobbe_Newsletter

A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (16.11.2023)

Are we in Hell_Hedgeye cartoon
© Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC with permission granted by Hedgeye, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited

War is destructive in many ways. The primary beneficiaries are the military / industrial / banking complex. Usually the reasons for war are so remote from the ‘truth’ we are told that in retrospect it is hard to believe.

With some assistance from, a very biased, Chat GPT. Let us have a look at the winners and losers in war.

  • Military-Industrial Complex:
    • Companies involved in the production of weapons, military equipment, and related services may experience increased demand during wartime. This includes defense contractors, arms manufacturers, and suppliers.
  • Arms Dealers and Suppliers:
    • Individuals and organizations engaged in the trade of arms and ammunition may profit from increased sales during periods of conflict.
  • Resource Exploitation:
    • Countries engaged in war may seek control over valuable resources such as oil, minerals, or strategic geographic locations. Entities within or allied with those countries may benefit economically from access to these resources.
  • Financial Institutions:
    • Some financial institutions may benefit from financing war efforts through loans and other financial instruments. War can create opportunities for certain investors to capitalize on market fluctuations.
  • Political Leaders and Elites:
    • Some political leaders may consolidate power or divert attention from domestic issues by rallying support during times of conflict. Additionally, elites with political influence might benefit from war-related contracts and economic opportunities.
  • Ideological and Extremist Groups:
    • In some cases, extremist groups with political or ideological motives may exploit the chaos of war to advance their agendas, gain territory, or recruit new members.
  • Geopolitical Shifts:
    • Certain nations may seek to enhance their geopolitical influence by supporting one side or another in a conflict. This can lead to shifts in regional power dynamics.
  • Media and Propaganda Outlets:
    • Some media outlets may experience increased viewership or readership during times of war. Propaganda and information warfare can be used to shape public opinion.

Short-Term Effects:

  • Loss of Life and Immediate Humanitarian Crisis:
    • High casualties, including military and civilian deaths.
    • Displacement of populations and creation of refugees.
    • Immediate humanitarian crises with challenges in providing food, shelter, and medical care.
  • Infrastructure Damage:
    • Destruction of critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, and communication networks.
    • Disruption of essential services, including electricity and water supply.
  • Economic Impact:
    • Disruption of economic activities, leading to a decline in production and trade.
    • High war-related expenses and economic strain on the country’s resources.
    • Loss of jobs and livelihoods.
  • Social Disruption:
    • Breakdown of social structures and community ties.
    • Disruption of education, with many children unable to attend school.
    • Increased crime rates and lawlessness.
  • Political Instability:
    • Weakening or collapse of political institutions.
    • Rise of extremist ideologies and potential power vacuums.
    • Increased risk of civil unrest and uprisings.

Long-Term Effects:

  • Economic Consequences:
    • Persistent economic challenges, including high levels of debt.
    • Long-term impact on economic development and growth.
    • Difficulty attracting foreign investment.
  • Health and Environmental Consequences:
    • Lingering health issues due to injuries, trauma, and exposure to hazardous materials.
    • Environmental degradation due to war-related activities (e.g., bombings, chemical warfare).
  • Social and Cultural Changes:
    • Long-lasting social scars and trauma.
    • Changes in cultural and societal norms.
    • Generational impact on attitudes and perceptions.
  • Displacement and Refugee Crises:
    • Prolonged displacement of populations and ongoing refugee crises.
    • Strain on neighboring countries hosting refugees.
    • Difficulty in repatriating and reintegrating displaced populations.
  • Political Fallout:
    • Ongoing political instability and challenges in establishing effective governance.
    • Potential for the emergence of long-term regional tensions.
    • Difficulty in achieving post-war reconciliation and social cohesion.
  • International Relations:
    • Long-term strain on diplomatic relations with other countries.
    • Potential for geopolitical shifts and realignments.

The effects of war are complex and interconnected. Efforts toward post-conflict reconstruction, reconciliation, and international cooperation are critical for mitigating the long-term impact of war on affected nations.

The effects of war on civilians are absolutely horrific. Here are a few rough numbers from the past. 

  • World War II (1939-1945):
    • Total civilian deaths: Estimates range from 50 to 55 million.
    • This includes deaths from various causes such as bombings, massacres, forced labor, and starvation.
  • World War I (1914-1918):
    • Total civilian deaths: Estimates vary, but it’s generally accepted that several million civilians died during the war.
  • Vietnam War (1955-1975):
    • Civilian deaths: Estimates range widely, but it’s generally believed that between 2 to 3 million Vietnamese civilians died during the conflict.
  • Korean War (1950-1953):
    • Civilian deaths: Estimates suggest that around 2 million civilians died during the Korean War.
  • Iraq War (2003-2011):
    • Civilian deaths: Estimates vary, but several hundred thousand civilian deaths have been reported.
  • Syrian Civil War (2011-present):
    • Civilian deaths: Estimates range from hundreds of thousands to over a million, with millions more displaced.
  • Afghanistan War (2001-present):
    • Civilian deaths: Estimates vary, but tens of thousands of civilians have been reported killed.

The prospect of war spreading gives us cause for concern. The huge uncontrolled immigration into Europe, the UK, the USA and many other countries brings an unexpected, for many, clash of cultures.

The numbers are changing the demographics, cultures and control of countries. This may not work out for the best.

The influence on one’s investment decisions and preferred place to locate oneself is profound and bears careful consideration.

After a nice run Bitcoin appears to be running out of steam. It gave a sell signal on our system yesterday.

$BTCUSD Bitcoin to US Dollar 16 Nov 2023

Bitcoin is still outperforming gold as it stands, but does appear overbought in comparison to it.

The Gold v HUI index is looking neutral to weak, with gold stocks looking ready to outperform the physical metal. No buy signal yet on stocks versus physical gold.

Physical silver is still hanging in there against the index of Silver v SIL so not quite time to purchase stocks of silver companies yet.

I believe that when the turn around happens, the moves will be significant as the stock prices have fallen exceptionally low.

This week silver is outperforming gold and a switch from gold to silver could be advantageous. The Silver:Gold ratio is 83.46:1 having fallen from 88.22:1 earlier in the week.

In my opinion silver is one of the most undervalued commodities in on the planet.

The formation of a head and shoulder formation as well as other indicators suggests that gold is about to outperform the dollar over the medium term.

$GOLD: USD Gold-Continuous Contract - 16 Nov 2023

TodayLast Week
Gold price$1,972.00$1,946.00
Silver price$23.91$22.51
Gold:Silver ratio83.46:186.39:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index21.4321.43
Dollar Index104.26105.69
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 34911.00 Gold price, $1,972.00)17.7017.56
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.2%3.7%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,938.00 and the high was $1,975.00, now trading at around $1,973.00

  • The monthly chart for Gold is an out indicator but recovering well.
  • The weekly chart is looking weak, but not yet a sell.
  • The daily chart is out, turning up.

$SILVER Silver -Continuous Contract - 15 Nov 2023

The low for Silver this week was $21.88 and the high $23.97, trading around $23.97 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates out and is indicating a reversal to a buy, but not quite yet.
  • The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and is indicating a buy is imminent.
  • The daily chart reflects a buy since yesterday.

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama.

Please contact us for more information.

Goldback - Fort Kobbe Vaults - Panama. WE ACCEPT GOLDBACK

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

Subscribe for the Latest News

Subscribe for the latest news and opinons about Gold, Silver, offshore vaulting and other industry information and opinion delivered right to your email inbox

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER

To receive industry news and updates​

“We provide a stable and expanding platform of physical and electronic security, technology, human structures and an ideal location that creates trust and resourceful solutions for our exacting wealth management clients.”

Fort Kobbe Panama

Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved Fort Kobbe Management, Corp.

Subscribe for the Latest News

Subscribe for the latest news and opinons about Gold, Silver, offshore vaulting and other industry information and opinion delivered right to your email inbox