Calvetti & Associates produces concise, rational work that is well worth reading. (see below).
“Let me start with equities, specifically America’s stock market. Few analysts dispute that the market is overvalued and distorted. We are now at the point where the ten most valuable companies have a market capitalization of close to $25 trillion. Or expressed differently, the “top ten” make up 43% of the S&P500 index.”
I have been banging on for quite a while about the overvaluation of the market. The Buffett Indicator (a stock market valuation measure that compares a country’s total stock market capitalization to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP)) is at 223%, more than two standard deviations above the historical trendline of 50% (1950’s) to 110% (2020’s). This is historic bubble territory. (Chart Below). These levels make me worry about the stability of the market. This growth in the index is mainly attributable to the mega-cap tech and AI stocks and the broad overvaluation of US stocks.
Having said that, where should one’s currency be placed if removed from the market in inflationary times such as we have,? How does one grow purchasing power?
Where are the safest inflation proof assets?
- Inflation linked bonds:TIPS Modest returns, using whose inflation numbers to calculate return?
- Commodities and energy: Good inflation hedge but cyclical.
- Gold and Silver: Outperform in late cycle stagflation and negative interest rates. I see stagflation wrapping its tentacles around the US economy right now.
- Select real estate: Extremely illiquid and probably overvalued broadly.
- ETF’s: Huge range available but subject to the risk of the underlying assetsPay attention to allocation.
Can the markets still go higher? I think higher than we expect. Because of inflationary expectations, people often see the stock market as an inflation hedge, as businesses can raise prices to keep up with inflation. The risk comes from stagflation or depression, where the ability to do any business is jeopardized and business starts failing or collapsing..
I am absolutely looking at gold and silver miners and other commodity stocks such as uranium, platinum, and palladium. At present our system has been pointing to physical gold and silver outperforming the stocks, although this is changing, so we are being patient.
With these investments, it’s important to understand what you are buying and to weigh the upside potential with the downside risks.
Our previous analysis appears to be proving correct. The gold and silver prices have not collapsed totally. The reality of a short squeeze, but more importantly, the actual shortage of metals in the market, is pressuring prices. When lease rates on silver are 100% that is an important message. Metals prices this morning are recovering in a robust way.
The shortage of physical metals acts as a partial brake on current physical prices; if there is nothing to buy, you cannot add more tangible pressure to the demand side. This is counterintuitive, but a feature of physical markets, especially gold and silver. Over time, the market can be supplied with either dollars or future metals to be mined. This will act as a longer-term support on prices as metals become available and are bought at current prices, they exert the demand force. The brake eventually fails when: Major refiners or central banks can’t source metal for delivery, or backwardation appears (near-term delivery costs more than future delivery), or Confidence in paper substitutes collapses. At that point, the shortage stops acting as a brake and instead becomes a catalyst for a repricing event, as in 1979–80 silver or late 2011 gold.
As long as countries print their currencies in tandem, exchange rates will remain relatively stable. This unaccounted real inflation erodes the real purchasing power of currencies surreptitiously. The entire market is falling when measured against gold and silver.
PLATINUM
BUY: (12 November 2025). The run-up in the Platinum price has been spectacular; a correction was to be expected. Our system got us out with a profit. The spike low may portend an early recovery. Buy.
URANIUM
SELL: (15 October 2025) URA. Looks like it is recovering, no buy signal yet.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms Bitcoin (05 November 2025).
ETHUSD: SELL: (30 October 2025)
BTCUSD: SELL: 30 October 2025. NASDAQ (Cyan).
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
06 November 2025 Gold stocks outperform gold.
Silver outperforms silver stocks (18 September 2025). Looking overbought but no change indicated yet.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Silver outperforming Gold. (07 November 2025) When we think that silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 78.72:1, something is way out of kilter. Silver is an astounding buy at this time, or gold is in for an extremely heavy correction. Love seeing the ratio move in the right direction.
GOLD TO USD
Gold outperforms USD (11 November 2025).
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,230.00 | $4,014.00 |
| Silver Price | $53.52 | $48.58 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 78.95:1 | 82.59:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 81.48 | 55.54 |
| Dollar Index | 99.30 | 100.17 |
| Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 48,135.00 Gold price, $4,230.00) | 11.37 | 11.79 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 3.0% | 2.9% |
Gold’s low of the week was $3,994.00, and the high was $4,245.00, now trading at around $4,219.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a HOLD. We bought it $1,800.00 in October 2023. Looking overbought, but it can hold that situation for a while. No sell signal yet. A spike high has formed (a sell signal), we have to wait for the end of the month for confirmation. No sell yet.
- Gold Weekly: (HOLD 25 August 2025) Overbought. No sell signals yet.
- Gold Daily: (BUY: 12 November 2025).
The low for Silver this week was $47.56, and the high $54.40 trading around $53.29 at present.
- Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy: $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought. No sell signal yet.
- Silver Weekly: (HOLD: 25 August 2025). Overbought but still positive indicators.
- Silver Daily: BUY (10 November 2025).
Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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