FortKobbe_Newsletter

A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (12.10.2023)

The Hamas/Israel conflict smells awful.

Nothing about it makes logical sense. The failures to detect and protect make me think of collusion.

The loss of life on all sides is sorely lamentable, the innocent lives lost, disrupted, and scarred forever are tragic.

The resultant hate and revenge tell me that the monsters creating this havoc have no heart.

I look to see the money flows and found the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL BANKING complex all benefiting from it.

Unfortunately, the situation has been created and needs to be settled carefully and sensibly with the best possible outcome for as many as possible.

I fear that the ramifications will be ongoing and devastating. I hope sanity prevails and this ends quickly. I am not putting money on that outcome.

Incredibly gold and silver prices have diminished during this period, whilst oil has soared.

Oil stocks on our system are mostly a sell.

Does this make sense? War stocks had a sixth sense on Friday and gapped up on Monday.

I wonder who had prior information on Friday? Pity the Israeli intelligence doesn’t watch the war stocks as a source.

Look at the outcome already. Bond yields, the Dollar Index, and potential interest decisions have contributed to the MMRI (Mannarino Market Risk Indicator) falling from 320 down to 305, holding the market relatively steady.

Input and Output_Ben Garrison
© With permission granted by Ben Garrison, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited. Visit Ben Garrison’s website by clicking on this link

If we shop for ourselves, we are fully aware of the fact that we are being hoodwinked on the inflation figures. As the Department of Statistics removes food and rent from their calculations, they have removed two of the major places where inflation is felt and hurting the most.

Inflation_Hedgeye Cartoon
© Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC with permission granted by Hedgeye, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited

Bitcoin and Gold

Bitcoin and the Nasdaq are still tracking one another very closely. The last run up in the Nasdaq was not followed as tightly by BTC as previous runs.

$BTCUSD Bitcoin to US dollar Nasdaq CRYPT 12 October 2023

Bitcoin has given a sell signal on our system with a reducing funds flow. Ethereum is also in a sell or out situation.

$BTCUSD Bitcoin to US dollar CRYPT 12 October 2023

Gold and Silver Stocks

Having watched the stocks of gold get taken down during the past number of weeks, a relatively small recovery during this week surprised me as the stocks outperformed gold over the past five trading days.

$GOLD:$HUI Gold- Continuous Contract (EOD) Gold Bugs Index - NYSE - 12 October 2023

The silver-to-silver stocks chart below easily demonstrates the volatility in this trade compared with the gold chart above.

Again we see silver physical losing out to silver stocks as above. The trajectory of physical silver outperforming stocks appears to remain intact even though at a lower rate.

$SILVER - SIL Silver- Continuous Contract (EOD) Global X Silver Miners ETF 12 October

Gold and Silver

The almost non-existent reaction of the precious metals prices, particularly when viewed on daily charts, to the Israel/Hamas situation, considering the potential longer-term effects, is quite remarkable.  

Usually the market is much smarter than us mere mortals individually.

When we at Fort Kobbe discuss the potential ramifications of a spread firstly within the Middle East and then worldwide we see huge potential for the violence to spread. (Worldwide Jihad called for, for Friday 13th after this article was written).

It appears that this is being treated as a local Israeli event, or the potential Western world local ramifications are being underestimated or underreported.

The potential for out-of-control demonstrations and counter-demonstrations is immense. I watched on TV, the police tried to control the crowds in Miami on Tuesday. Not very successful.

The millions of illegal young male ‘immigrants’ in both the US and Europe present a serious danger to mostly disarmed local populations which are unprepared for a real insurrection, should the ‘immigrants’  be instructed/incentivized/organized to riot or revolt.

The danger is that local populations will not be willing, or worse, will be unable to protect themselves. A precedent was set in the Israeli attacks that direct attacks within homes can be utilized to maim, murder, and intimidate local people.

My intention here is not to cause fear as that is self defeating, but rather that you evaluate your current situation and preparedness to defend yourself and your family.

Because of the deliberate vast infiltration into our societies of potential terrorists, (not MAGA’s) it is worth spending a little time contemplating a survival strategy.

Gold to USD chart

As expected last week the Gold:USD ratio chart bounced off the support line (Blue horizontal). This means that gold outperformed USD.

$GOLD:$USD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 12 October 2023

In the chart below we witness a cross-over of the US dollar upwards over the gold price. This seems to be correcting back to a normal inverse relationship. As long as the dollar weakens we can expect a higher gold price.

I always worry about a continuation of a trend after a gap as they are usually closed, meaning we can expect a retracement in the gold price. Often the gap is closed and the trend continues. We wait patiently to see.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 12 October 2023

Look at the Gold and Silver Charts

TodayLast Week
Gold price$1,875.00$1,816.00
Silver price$21.98$21.00
Gold: Silver ratio85.21:186.77:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index$17.86$17.86
Dollar Index$105.87$106.47
Dollar IndexDow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 33,787.00 Gold price, $1,874.00)18.0218.16
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.7%3.2%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,831.00 and the high was $1,885.00, now trading at around $1,873.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold is a sell or out. Some indicators are beginning to look positive.
  • The weekly chart is in a sell or out condition.
  • The daily chart remains out, looking more positive.
$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 12 October 2023

The low for Silver this week was $21.56 and the high $22.24, trading around $21.94 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates a sell.
  • The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and is indicating sell or stay out.
  • The daily chart remains in sell or out mode and broke below the long term daily trading range, but recovered this week. If prices improve this and next week we will get a buy signal.
$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 12 October 2023

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama.

Please contact us for more information.

Goldbacks Fort Kobbe Vaults Panama

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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