The department of statistics is feeding us figures which are frightening. They told The People of America that 584,000 jobs were created… but now they say it was really just 181,000.
What happened to the rest of the jobs? If this is the quality of statistics we are receiving, what other statistics are being ‘massaged’?
When I look at insolvencies, repossessions, delinquent payments, etc. I see increasing hardship. The wealthy appear to be getting wealthier, the middle class appears to be shrinking and the poor are still in trouble.
In my opinion we are being fed propaganda on a continuous basis in order to cover up the dire state of the economy, in the hopes that current policies will pull it out of the quagmire.
This current political and economic situation is the perfect set up for war. War justifies spending on military hardware and creates employment on a grand scale, justifies money printing, justifies inflation, justifies new laws, justifies CBDC’s (Central Bank Digital Currencies) by whatever camouflage name they have, justifies implementation of a new monetary system, justifies reneging on debt payment, which has become too large to maintain.
Scenarios below are not predictions — they are frameworks with rough probability weights.
Managed decline: Probability: ~45%
- Growth slows but avoids collaps
- Inflation oscillates 2.5–4% around the current inflation rate
- Debt rises but is rolled forward
- Periodic liquidity injections
- Political polarization continues but no systemic rupture
Expected Asset Performance
- Gold: Gradual appreciation (real yield hedge)
- Silver: Volatile but upward trend
- Equities: Choppy, modest nominal gains
- This is the most common historical outcome. Debt burdens are inflated away slowly.
Strategy
Maintain core metals. No need to panic sell. Tactical trimming is acceptable.
Stagflationary Drift – Probability: ~25%
- Inflation sticky at 4–6% plus (government figures), real rate is higher
- Growth weakRates remain structurally higher
- Real wages pressured
- Social stress rises
| Asset | Expected Performance |
|---|---|
| Gold | Strong outperformer |
| Silver | Very strong (monetary + industrial) |
| Equities | Weak in real terms |
| Treasuries | Poor real return |
| USD | Weak in real purchasing power |
1970s-type regime.
Gold/silver allocations become strategic anchors.
Financial Accident / Credit Event: Probability: ~20%
Banking or sovereign stress
- Liquidity crunch
- Rapid central bank intervention
- QE returns aggressively
| Asset | Initial Reaction | 6–18 Months Later |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Brief dip or spike | Major rally |
| Silver | Sharp drop | Explosive rebound |
| Equities | 20% to -40% | Partial recovery |
| Treasuries | Short spike | Then inflation risk |
| USD | Spike | Then decline |
Crisis leads to monetary expansion.
Physical metal is valuable. Selling corrections before such an event is risky.
Severe Geopolitical Escalation – Probability: ~10%
Characteristics
- Major regional war expansion
- Energy shock
- Capital controls possible
- Currency volatility, unstable
| Asset | Expected Performance |
|---|---|
| Gold | Sharp upward repricing |
| Silver | High volatility, upward bias |
| Equities | Highly unstable |
| Treasuries | Uncertain (depends on inflation) |
| USD | Depends on conflict alignment |
Physical assets and liquidity matter.
Probability-Weighted Asset Outlook (3–5 Years)
| Asset | Weighted Outlook |
|---|---|
| Gold | Structurally positive |
| Silver | Higher volatility, higher beta positive |
| Equities | Moderate nominal, weak real returns |
| Treasuries | Low/negative real returns |
| USD | Cash Purchasing power erosion likely |
Strategy
Keep 50–70% of strategic gold/silver intact
- Trim tactically only after parabolic spikes
- Avoid full exit unless structural thesis changes
Liquidity Buffer
- 10–20% short-term T-bills (not long-duration)
- Maintain operational flexibility
Opportunistic Capital
Deploy into:
- Undervalued miners
- Distressed assets during corrections
- Additional physical if forced liquidation events occur
Psychological Note
Corrections after 50–60% runs feel catastrophic because:
- Recency bias exaggerates downside
- Profit protection instinct activates
- Liquidity events (margin hikes) create artificial urgency
Historically:
Strong bull markets punish full exits more than partial trims.
The biggest gains occur after shakeouts.
PLATINUM
SELL: On the Daily chart (26 January 2026)
URANIUM
SELL (29 January 2026) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms Bitcoin (18 December 2025). 13.70 one ounce gold coins buy one bitcoin; this was over 41 ounces almost a year ago. It appears that Bitcoin is reversing. I could call a reversal here except that the chart is already overbought. It is worth waiting a while.
ETHUSD: SELL: (18 January 2026) Looking oversold, but no buy indications.
BTCUSD: SELL: 19 January 2026. NASDAQ (Cyan). Note the divergence from the NASDAQ. Looking oversold, but no buy indications yet.
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
28 January 2026 Gold is about to outperform gold stocks. Now almost neutral, no change in the signal yet.
Silver stocks outperform silver (30 December 2025). Just look at the volatility! Silver stocks look like a great buy.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Gold outperforming Silver. (30 January 2026) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 62.19. The price crash has reversed the falling ratio of silver to gold. I feel confident that the downward trajectory will resume. I still have a bias to silver rather than gold. Time will tell.
GOLD TO USD
USD outperforms Gold (30 January 2026). Although we have a change and the signals confirm it, there are signs that this will not be long lived.
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $5,066.00 | $4,826.00 |
| Silver Price | $82.50 | $75.34 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 61.33:1 | 63.67:1 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 85.19 | 100.0 |
| Dollar Index | 96.91 | 97.76 |
| Dow: Gold Ratio (BahaUS 50,234.00 Gold price, 5,066.00) | 9.91 | 10.22 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | 2.7% | 2.7% |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,960.00, and the high was $5,118.00, now trading at around $5,066.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a HOLD. We bought at $1,800.00 in October 2023. Looking overbought, but it can hold that situation for a while. No sell signal yet.
- Gold Weekly: (HOLD 25 August 2025) Overbought. No sell signals yet.
- Gold Daily: (HOLD: 12 November 2025). The indicators are holding. Gold almost gave a sell signal, but seems to be holding.
The low for Silver this week was $77.37, and the high $86.30, trading around $82.62 at present.
- Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy: $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought. No sell signal yet. I am not excited by the picture presented on this chart, but I will wait for the sell signal.
- Silver Weekly: (HOLD: 25 August 2025). Overbought but still positive indicators, except for two. I would be reluctant to put on an early sell based on the fundamental picture.
- Silver Daily: SELL (30 January 2026). The spike low is potentially a turnaround point. We wait for a buy confirmation.
Our partner has a stock of both gold, silver, and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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