There are too many inconsistencies in the stories being produced by the media and involved dealers who are caught short in the silver market. I see denials that there is any shortage of silver by so called reputable market makers.
I have watched the western markets trade at around $72.00, but eastern markets closer to $80.00. The Western markets are basically paper markets, whilst the Shanghai market is a physical one.
The arbitrage opportunity of an $8.00 spread is far too mouth-watering for any trader to ignore, unless he cannot get the physical silver to actually deliver to Shanghai. The buyers in Shanghai know the stock situation and will push the price to any level they need in order to complete their purchases.
If the silver were available, this spread would be minimized in short order. The Western banks and traders are fleecing the local holders of silver, giving them every incentive to part with their silver so that they can profit from the coming price run-up.
From 1 January exports are controlled by the Chinese government. This makes delivery to China a one way movement. The west is driving itself into a cul de sac. China has complete discretion as to who gets supply. They have been supplying about 67% of the requirements of the west.
China has been buying dore directly from the South American mines and buying the mines too. They are securing their supply lines. This is a huge threat to western manufacturers of AI hardware, Electric vehicles, solar panels and military equipment as well as smaller users of the product.
Silver cannot be switched to higher production to meet the demand, as the vast majority is produced as a by-product of lead, Zinc, and copper mining. I understand that around 25% of the market supply is from silver mines, mostly in Mexico, and they have export restrictions.
If we look at the geopolitical situation, the Venezuela action of arresting Maduro is no accident. The drug action is a front for a maneuver to shut off oil supplies to China and Russia. Already, a deal valued at $2 billion has been done to supply the US directly. Could this possibly be partly as a reaction to silver being shut off to Western markets? The timing would suggest so.
I am not excited by the rising tensions worldwide.
Last week I floated a silver price of $200.00. I see that Bank of America is forecasting silver to trade at $309.00. Most of the banks that were assisting to suppress the price of silver, shorting the market, have now gone long. To be on the side of the banks could turn out to be quite profitable.
The CME hiked margins another 32%, the fifth hike in the past two weeks. Does this tell you of the unlimited silver supply available? This is to curtail buying as much as possible. It also forces weak hands out of the market. This reminds me of the Game Stop debacle, just in a much more dangerous way.
Gold is the largest asset by value, then it is a fight between Netflix and silver at these prices. Expect volatility as the fight for control of the market unfolds.
PLATINUM
BUY: On the monthly chart (BUY: April 2025) We have a buy on Platinum. The spike high was a worry, but the price is recovering well.
URANIUM
BUY (02 January 2026) URA.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Gold outperforms bitcoin (18 December 2025). 20.84 one ounce gold coins buys one bitcoin, this was over 41 ounces almost a year ago. It appears that bitcoin is reversing. I could call a reversal here except that the chart is already overbought. It is worth waiting a while.
ETHUSD: BUY: (01 January 2026)
BTCUSD: SELL: 15 December 2025. NASDAQ (Cyan). BTC looks like a buy but is immediately overbought. I will wait before going long.
GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS
06 November 2025 Gold stocks outperform gold.
Silver outperforms silver stocks (08 December 2025). An early signal. The spike high is a worry but the signals are not giving a sell yet.
GOLD AND SILVER
Silver to Gold Ratio
Silver outperforming Gold. (07 November 2025) Silver is coming out of the ground at about 8:1 and the Gold: Silver ratio is 55.35:1. Silver is still a great buy at this time, even over $70.00 The ratio is falling showing the strength of silver against gold.
GOLD TO USD
USD outperforms Gold, (30 December 2025). Trend reversing.
A LOOK AT THE GOLD AND SILVER CHARTS
| Today | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Price | $4,470.00 | $4,341.00 |
| Silver Price | $78.70 | $75.30 |
| Gold:Silver ratio | 57.00:1 | 57.13 |
| Gold Miners bullish percent index | 92.59 | 92.59 |
| Dollar Index | 98.80 | 92.59 |
| Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 48,793.00 Gold price, $4,470.00) | 10.91 | 11.14 |
| Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics) | ?% | 27%? |
Gold’s low of the week was $4,332.00 and the high was $4,475.00 now trading at around $4,470.00.
- Gold Monthly: is a HOLD. We bought at $1,800.00 in October 2023. Looking overbought, but it can hold that situation for a while. No sell signal yet.
- Gold Weekly: (HOLD 25 August 2025) Overbought. No sell signals yet. An unusual pattern. A definitive candlestick sell, then a break free of the resistance.
- Gold Daily: (HOLD: 12 November 2025). It almost looked like a sell on the daily chart but the indicators are holding.
The low for Silver this week was $72.39 and the high $78.92 trading around $78.70 at present.
- Silver Monthly: Hold. (Buy: $24.00 March 2024). Looking overbought. No sell signal yet.
- Silver Weekly: (HOLD: 25 August 2025). Overbought but still positive indicators.
- Silver Daily: SELL (10 November 2025). Silver formed a cup and handle. This pattern completed, then the price blasted upwards. I put on a sell last Friday. The sell indicators have not reversed. There is a major battle between paper and physical markets. There are over three hundred ounces of contracts in the market for every real ounce of silver. If investors stand for delivery, there is no way they can deliver on the contracts, other than for cash.
Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
A video by Mike Adams on the Goldbacks.
Well worth a look!
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals, and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only.
An interview with Josh, owner of Scottsdale Mint:
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
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