Fort Kobbe Vaults Panama - Newsletter - 20231102

A look at the Gold and Silver Charts (02.11.2023)

Hillary Clinton's Halloween Costume

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The Visual Capitalist in his excellent graphic representation below of where the Ultra-Wealthy invest their assets, bears inspection.

Primary and secondary residences make up 32%, 18% in equities, 14% in commercial property, 12% in bonds, 6% in private equity/venture capital, 5% commercial property funds, 3% commercial property REITS, 3% investments of passion, 2% Gold, 1% crypto assets, and 5% other assets.

If we look at total PROPERTY investments, it is 32+14+5+3= 54%. Property is a double edged sword. Ideally it should protect one against an inflationary environment. If there were no property taxes this could be true. What happens if property taxes are not paid? Property confiscation! 

Does one really own the property if taxes are levied on it making it subject to confiscation? We have no control of the amount of property taxes levied. So what are the limits? A too hot economy  is usually the bringer of high interest rates which lead to falling property prices. 

The other side of property ownership is in the risk of recession and a contracting economy or deflation. This causes property sales to implode as there are few buyers.

If one is wealthy enough, one can wait for a price and value recovery. If we think of the 1929 depression, stocks and property took until the 50’s to recover to their original prices. Values? Maybe.

Bonds comprise 12% of their portfolio. Right now bonds are under pressure. I do not see the pressure lifting for quite a while. 

The other investments are diversification and a relatively small percentage.

Of note is the gold holding of only 2%. Interestingly enough, investment funds hold 1.7% according to Quantpedia.

Only 15% of institutions hold any gold in their portfolios. Of those, their average allocation is an average of 4% of the portfolio. So a quick calculation would work out at approximately 0.6% overall. What would happen to the price if this went to 4% overall?

Click here to read the full article: The use of gold in institutional portfolios

I worry about the trajectory of the economy and the safety and allocation of assets.

Here is how the Ultra-Wealthy allocate their Wealth

Bitcoin and Gold

Bitcoin is holding the price established last week. It is looking overbought here and is due for a correction. So Bitcoin is holding its stronger relationship to gold as it stands right now.

$BTCUSD:$GOLD Bitcoin to US Dollar / Gold - Continuous Contract

Gold and Silver Stocks

Gold is still outperforming the gold stocks.

$GOLD:$HUI Gold - Continuous Contract

Physical silver is still outperforming the silver stocks.

$SILVER:SIL Silver - Continuous Contract

Gold and Silver

The Gold:Silver ratio is standing at 87.21 ounces of silver to one of gold in the chart below.

This is a crazily out of place ratio. The miners are stating that they are bringing silver out of the ground at a ratio of 7 ounces of silver to one of gold.

How is this possible in a normal market?

We await open free trading precious metals markets, doing the job they are designed to do. That is showing the weakness of the currencies.

$GOLD:$SILVER Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD)

Gold to USD chart

Gold is holding up reasonably well against the strong dollar. The dollar according to our system could get stronger, but at present is moving sideways. The signals are looking weaker so we wait and watch.

$USD US Dollar - Cash Settle FOREX

Look at the Gold and Silver Charts

TodayLast Week
Gold price$1,985.00$1,979.00
Silver price$22.95$22.80
Gold:Silver ratio86.40:186.82:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index17.8617.86
Dollar Index105.94106.65
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 33,484.00 Gold price, $1,984.00)16.8716.70
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.7%3.7%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,969.00 and the high was $2,007.00, now trading at around $1,983.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold is an out indicator but recovering well.
  • The weekly chart is in a buy but looks over bought here and will have resistance up to $2,050.00.
  • The daily chart is a hold. It looks a little overbought and rolling over.
$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME

The low for Silver this week was $22.53 and the high $23.60, trading around $22.86 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart indicates out and most indicators are still negative..
  • The weekly chart has had us on a rollercoaster and is indicating out. The buy indicators have not triggered yet.
  • The daily chart is a hold but is looking toppy. More indicators are looking negative.
$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama.

Please contact us for more information.

Goldback - Fort Kobbe Vaults - Panama. WE ACCEPT GOLDBACK

On the charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions, I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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