Fort Kobbe Vaults Newsletter - Gold and Silver Charts

A look at Gold and Silver Charts (2022-12-29)

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Last week we had a look at the Gold state of play, this week I would like to have a look at the situation with silver.

Comparing silver prices to the M2 money supply we see that it has touched an historic bottom. This means that relative to the amount of money in cash, current accounts, savings accounts, retail mutual funds and time deposits under $100,000.00, silver is the cheapest it has ever been.

Silver is about half the price it was in 1980, I know of no other commodity that can be bought for half of its price of just over 42 years ago.

Silver to Money Supply Ratio

Silver has just had its strongest November performance in 52 years

Silver Historical Performance During November Months

For silver just to catch up with other commodities it will need to increase in price by at least 80% according to the chart below. 

I believe that as commercial uses are growing, the supply situation is worsening and as the monetary system is further abused, prices will rise exponentially. When the manipulation is stopped, 80% will be a tiny percentage of the real catch up.

Silver vs. Commodities

Over the past few years, the gold and silver miners have estimated their companies to be undervalued and have been buying back their own shares. When the insiders are purchasing their own shares that is usually a good sign that it is time for the retail market to buy too.

Gold & Silver Miners: Share Buybacks

If we compare the spot price of gold to the performance of the gold and silver stocks, we see that the stocks have far underperformed the spot gold price, whilst generally following the spot price pattern. This leaves lots of room for the stocks to perform, even without major moves in the gold or silver prices.

Gold Stocks vs Gold Physical

I am wondering if we should be ignoring the price gyrations in the gold, silver and platinum markets, while the market riggers fix their books for the year end.

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$1,808.00$1,817.00
Silver Price$23.92$23.78
Gold : Silver Ratio75.63:176.42:1
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index48.2848.28
Dollar Index104.18104.07
Dow:Gold Ratio
(BahaUS30 32973.00/Gold Price ,1808.00)
18.2318.33
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)7.1%7.7%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,797.00 and the high was $1,832.00, now trading at around $1,808.00

The monthly chart for Gold is a buy. The weekly chart is a buy but looking overbought. The daily chart is a buy.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 28th December 2022

The low for Silver this week was $23.51 and the high $24.24, trading around $23.90 at present.

Silver on the monthly chart is a buy. On the weekly chart we have a buy which is holding and is slightly overbought. On the daily chart, we have a buy signal, looking a little weak.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 28th December 2022

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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