Fort Kobbe Vaults Newsletter - Gold and Silver Charts

A look at Gold and Silver Charts (2022-11-10)

It is great to see signs of life in both the gold and silver markets. I suggest we wait to see how the market reacts to the short squeeze in both markets. When the panic is over we will probably have a signal to buy both the physical metals and the mining and related stocks.

The other side of the LBMA banks’ derivative positions is unallocated customer accounts, originally devised and expanded as a means of diverting demand for gold that would have otherwise driven up the price of bullion. The trend towards increasing quantities of paper bullion relative to the physical is likely to be reversed, because suppression of the gold price is now leading to accelerating demand for physical bullion.

An interesting comment from Alasdair Macleod

This basically means that because of the price suppression, people now recognize the value of purchasing the physical metal rather than the paper derivative. This puts the manipulators in a difficult position. Either allow prices to rise or lose the metals stockholding.

Gold, in USD 01/1970 to 10/2022

A beautiful Cup and handle formation on the long term chart, suggesting further price increases.

COMEX Gold Deliveries, in Thousands of Troy Ounces 01/2006 to 10/2022

More traders are taking delivery of their physical metal than previously and the silver delivery chart looks very similar. How long can COMEX have this continue without price displacement?

Gold in Various Developed Market Currencies, in %, 2022 Year to Date

Gold through the ages has proven to be a hedge against currency depreciation and here is proof. As the dollar has strengthened many currencies have weakened against it, as the graph above illustrates showing how gold has compensated for the currency loss. It may not cover the losses completely, but it certainly works as an excellent hedge against currency risk.

Silver (Nominal), and Silver (Inflation Adjusted - September 2022), in USD, 01/1970 to 09/2022

Silver remains a steal at these prices. I am unable to think of a product which in nominal terms is still half the price it was in 1980, in inflation adjusted terms one seventh of the price compared to 1980. Even the price riggers are seeing that more and more savvy investors are standing for delivery in both silver and gold. They don’t want this, as they prefer selling paper and keeping prices suppressed. How long before their scheme collapses?

S&P GSCI Total Return Index / S&P 500 Ratio, 01/1970 to 10/2022

This is a ratio chart comparing commodities to the S&P index. It shows the relative strength of commodities to the market. Commodities have not been so cheap since pre 1971. This will soon present an incredible opportunity within the market. My guess is that we will see an emergence of the commodities sector in the third or fourth quarter of next year, all things being equal.

Have a look at these remarkable charts on King World News

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$1,733.00$1,620.00
Silver Price$21.70$18.91
Gold:Silver Ratio79.68 :185.55:1
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index34.4827.59
Dollar Index109.23113.04
Dow:Gold Ratio
(BahaUS30 33263.00 / Gold price ,1733.00)
19.1919.72
Current USA Inflation Rate8.2%8.2%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,665.00 and the high was $1,736.00, now trading at around $1,736.00.

The monthly chart for Gold is currently negative. The possibility of $1,561.00 seems less likely. The weekly chart is almost, but not quite a buy. The daily chart is a buy.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 9th November 2022

The low for Silver this week was $20.38 and the high $21.84, trading around $21.67 at present.

Silver on the monthly chart is neutral with positive indications. On the weekly chart we have a buy. On the daily chart, we continue to have a buy signal.

$SILVER Silver Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 9th November 2022

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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