A look at Gold and Silver Charts (07.13.2023)

Yield_curve_Hedgeye cartoon
© Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC with permission granted by Hedgeye, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited

Before going into the Roman Empire, I would like to raise a point of concern.

I, personally, lived through severe capital controls whilst in South Africa and saw how far reaching the ramifications are.

As an example, any funds over a certain small amount, leaving the country, have to be pre-approved, firstly by one’s bank and as the sums become larger, by the country’s reserve bank. 

Assuming this permission is granted, which is by no means a foregone conclusion, justification for every purchase has to be made, generally to a person who has no understanding of your business or personal situation.

The process is exceptionally time consuming and the amounts sent may be accumulated by the reserve bank and limited in value. 

So assume that you decide to bypass the system and purchase gold or silver locally and export it. The only way an export could take place in South Africa was with a reverse funds flow. So every export was documented and tracked to assure a funds inflow to match a goods outflow

It became a nightmare to deal with and far more complex than this simple example.

I would suggest that if you have in mind moving funds or goods, it be done sooner rather than later.


2. In order to avoid the collapse of society, free thought and speech is essential.

  • When we compare free thought in the Roman Empire with the current situation in the United States (US), we see that the Roman Empire was a highly regulated and centralized autocracy.

The US is a democratic republic, with a system of checks and balances and a constitution (supposedly), protecting individual freedoms. Unfortunately, what I am observing is the passage of laws, known to be unconstitutional, with the expectation that they will be overturned, but executed to their fullest extent, whilst effective. 

  • The Roman Empire (Empire), had no system controlling free speech directly, but it was highly hierarchical, with strong emphasis on social order, stability and imperial authority, which limited individual thought and expression. Open dissent or criticism against the Emperor or imperial system was limited and considered treasonous or sacrilegious

The United States, as enshrined in the First Amendment of the Constitution, guarantees freedom of speech, which includes the right to express opinions, criticize the government, and engage in open debate.

While certain limitations exist, such as obscenity, incitement to violence, and defamation, the U.S. legal framework generally prioritizes the protection of free expression.

The problem with this is that the meaning of words is being changed, the definition of terms is being changed and subversion of the language is taking place on a grand scale, not to mention the subversion of the court system.

  • Censorship: There was no direct system of censorship as we know it today in the Roman Empire. Literature was subject to scrutiny and possible suppression. If deemed seditious or morally objectionable , the senate or Emperor could ban or destroy such works. 

It’s worth noting that while the United States generally upholds the principles of free thought and expression, there can still be challenges and debates regarding the boundaries of these rights.

Disputes arise over issues like hate speech, misinformation, and the influence of money in politics. Nonetheless, the overall framework supports the protection and promotion of diverse perspectives and free thought.

The government, however, has been ‘advising’ the internet based media and social media companies of undesirable persons, tweets, posts and demanding their removal. No censorship there! Just think of the use of Facebook and Twitter by three letter agencies to shut dissenting voices.

  • Religion: The Roman Empire had an official state religion with a pantheon of gods and goddesses. Religious practices were interwoven with the society of Rome. Participation or promotion of alternative religions were viewed with suspicion and could lead to persecution or social ostracism.

One need go no further than the recent COVID situation and the forbidding of attendance at religious services, totally against the freedom of worship rights!

  • Political Control: The Imperial government and local authorities had the means to suppress dissent and maintain control. They had a network of spies, informants and secret police who were able to create an atmosphere of fear and self censorship.

The parallel here is so obvious that it needs no further justification.

  • Social Pressure: Roman Society placed emphasis on conformity and social order. Deviating from the norm would attract ostracism or exclusion from society. This subdued free thought and expression as well as challenges to prevailing views or norms.

If we look at the Covid period and the mask, “to protect others”, the ostracism of people refusing the masks or vaccines or the house arrest of the population, the quarantines and much more, it shows us going down the same road.

There is diversity in control from state to state as was there in the Roman Empire. If we look at red states compared to blue states the differences are palpable. Nonetheless the stranglehold of the state is and was there to see for all.

Gold and Bitcoin

For the past month BTC has outperformed Gold. As we can see below, the relative performance has flattened and the signals are pointing to weakness in BTC but not a change in preference yet.

$BTCUSD Bitcoin to US dollar CRYPT 13 July 2023

Gold and Silver Stocks

Yesterday we got a sell signal on both the gold and silver ETF shorts, a good indicator for the stocks to improve.

In addition our GLD:HUI indicator favors the stocks right now.

$GOLD:$HUI Gold- Continuous Contract (EOD) Gold Bugs Index - NYSE - 13 July 2023

Gold and Silver

The past quarter has been rather dismal for the precious metals. The last few days have seen signs of recovery. I think that because of the financial turmoil, the prices of the precious metals are being severely controlled within a tight range. If the prices break out of the trading range they will run uncontrollably.

TodayLast Week
Gold price$1,960.00$1,902.00
Silver price$24.68$22.70
Gold: Silver ratio79.35:183.72:1
Gold Miners bullish percent index39.2939.29
Dollar Index99.66102.85
Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 34,389.00/Gold price, $1,961.00)17.5317.88
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)3.0%4.0%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,912.00 and the high was $1,964.00, now trading at around $1,960.00.

  • The monthly chart for Gold is a hold, looking neutral.
  • The weekly chart remains an ‘out’ but indicators turning up.
  • The daily chart gives us a buy this morning.
$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 13 July 2023

The low for Silver this week was $22.74 and the high $24.74, trading around $24.70 at present.

  • Silver on the monthly chart remains a hold.
  • The weekly chart has a few indicators in positive territory, but not enough for a buy signal yet.
  • The daily chart has given us a buy signal this morning.
$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 13 July 2023

Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama.

Please contact us for more information.

Goldbacks Fort Kobbe Vaults Panama

On the charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.

Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

Subscribe for the Latest News

Subscribe for the latest news and opinons about Gold, Silver, offshore vaulting and other industry information and opinion delivered right to your email inbox


To receive industry news and updates​

“We provide a stable and expanding platform of physical and electronic security, technology, human structures and an ideal location that creates trust and resourceful solutions for our exacting wealth management clients.”

Fort Kobbe Panama

Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved Fort Kobbe Management, Corp.

Subscribe for the Latest News

Subscribe for the latest news and opinons about Gold, Silver, offshore vaulting and other industry information and opinion delivered right to your email inbox