The IMF (International Monetary Fund) warns of a “Sizeable Upside to Inflation”.
How much are they expecting that is not being clearly explained to the general public?
Is this inflationary run not over? Official figures are being presented as reducing. I understand the numbers are not negative, so inflation is still in the system, just at a reduced rate. This is nothing to crow about. We certainly do not have a deflationary situation, maybe disinflationary.
How is it possible that anyone with a modicum of common sense cannot see that printing trillions of dollars and other currencies into existence causes an inflationary explosion? Not only in the places the currencies are printed, but where they are destined as well.
This may be what the IMF is referring to. If a flood of dollars returned to the US, maybe sent to repay dollar loans, or fake dollar notes designed to destroy the US economy or discourage use of the ‘paper’ currency, or to ‘encourage’ use of CBDC’s, that would be exceptionally inflationary by adding to the amount of dollars in circulation as well as to destroy confidence in the currency.
(Or maybe they took a sneak peek at the Shadowstats.com site to see real inflation).
The common definition of inflation, by Mises, (Austrian School of Economics), is “a General Increase in the Money Supply”. If you are interested in reading the PDF it is linked here to.
Correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.
For our numerous clients interested in crypto currencies, I append the chart showing the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.
I see a reverse head and shoulders on the Bitcoin chart above, a five year chart, formed from May last year to now and a head and shoulders formation on the one year chart below, from mid March to current. Let’s see which way they resolve.
Gold and Silver Stocks
The gold and silver stocks have taken a beating so far this week concurrent with the punishment meted out to the base precious metals prices. This is understandable.
There have been some small gains in the stocks as the precious metals mining industry begins to recover from its huge undervaluation. Our system still indicates a sell on stocks versus the base metals. I look forward to the reversal.
A look at the ASA:Gold chart below, shows the cup and handle formation taking shape from February 2023. The cup from February to the end April and the handle from end April into May. When the breakout upwards happens I expect quite a quick run up in precious metals stock valuations.
Gold and Silver
The US dollar has given me a buy signal. Do not be put off of gold by this as both gold and the dollar can increase in price together at this stage of the cycle.
|Gold Miners bullish percent index||60.71||75.00|
|Dow:Gold Ratio (BahaUS 33309.00/Gold price, $1957.00) =||17.02||16.45|
|Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)||4.9%||5.0%|
Gold’s low of the week was $1,957.00 and the high was $2,023.00, now trading at around $1,960.00.
- The monthly chart for Gold is a hold and still looks positive.
- The weekly chart is a hold, looking weaker. The spike high is not supported by the other signals, so no sell yet.
- The daily chart remains in an OUT position, looking like it will go lower.
The low for Silver this week was $23.39 and the high $24.23, trading around $23.47 at present.
- Silver on the monthly chart remains a buy.
- The weekly chart is a hold, approaching a sell but not there yet.
- The daily chart is a sell, so out of the market. Price is inside the long term trading range and looking weak. There is support around $23.00 to $23.50.
Our partner has stock of both gold, silver and Goldbacks in our vaults available in Panama. Please contact us for more information.
On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only
Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.
If you are interested in an overview of Fort Kobbe, you may want to have a look at this video: Mike Brown, Director, Fort Kobbe, International Vaults, A DotCom Magazine Exclusive Interview
This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.