Fort Kobbe Vaults Newsletter

A look at Gold and Silver Charts (05.01.2023)

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Pay attention: Data compiled (by) the World Gold Council has shown demand for the precious metal has outstripped any annual amount in the past 55 years. Last month’s estimates are also far larger than central banks’ official reported figures.

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The last two weeks of 2022 were a real head scratcher for me as the prices of gold and silver were increasing while the gold and silver stocks were languishing or falling. I can only put this down to large portfolio holders rebalancing or selling losing positions for taxation purposes.

This Tuesday and Wednesday the stocks of both gold and silver came to life, showing what they can do in trying times.

It is notable in this January 2022 to January 2023 chart, that the price of Gold, although it is almost exactly the same as it was at the open of 2022, as shown by the blue line, has outperformed the NASDAQ (Red), NYSE (Royal Blue), DJIA (Green), S&P 500 (Magenta), by merely staying the same. 

January 2022 to January 2023 Chart, that the price of Gold, although it is almost exactly the same as it was at the open of 2022, as shown by the blue line, has outperformed the NASDAQ (Red), NYSE (Royal Blue), DJIA (Green), S&P 500 (Magenta), by merely staying the same.

Let’s have a look at the future possibilities for gold and silver, a treacherous and perhaps ruinous exploration, using Fibonacci retracement.

$GOLD Gold Continuous Contract (EOD) Wednesday 4th January using Fibonacci retracement

Looking back over the year we had a peak price for gold at around $2,080.00 and a low around $1,525.00. At this moment we have a 50% ($1,850.00) retracement and a run to 61.8% ($1,905.00) retracement is a reasonable possibility.

A consolidation pull back to $1,800.00 is not out of the question but we have seen consolidation around the $1,800.00 to $1,825.00 range. Once the 61.8% retracement is broken it is a relatively easy run to $2,000.00 plus.

The huge preponderance of geopolitical events as well as out of control government spending tend to reinforce my conviction that prices in dollars will continue to rise.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME Wednesday 4th January 2023 Fibonacci retracement

The Silver high for the year was $27.50 and the low $17.40. The 50% retracement was $22.43 and it easily took out the 61.8% retracement at $23.55. In my opinion it is now well on its way to its previous high of $27.39 and easily on from there. If you have been reading these missives for a while you know that I think Silver is one of the cheapest commodities, (monetary metals), available.

TodayLast Week
Gold Price$1,835.00$1,808.00
Silver Price$23.32$23.92
Gold : Silver Ratio78.59:175.63:1
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index48.2848.28
Dollar Index104.91104.18
Dow:Gold Ratio
(BahaUS30 32981.00/Gold Price ,1835.00)
17.9718.23
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)7.1%7.7%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,823.00 and the high was $1,865.00, now trading at around $1,837.00

The monthly chart for Gold is a buy. The weekly chart is a buy but looking overbought. The daily chart is a buy looking overbought. 

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME Wednesday 4th January 2023

The low for Silver this week was $23.22 and the high $24.53, trading around $23.32 at present.

Silver on the monthly chart is a buy. On the weekly chart we have a buy which is holding and is slightly overbought. On the daily chart, we have a buy signal, looking a little weak.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME Wednesday 4th January 2023

On the Stockcharts.com charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional

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