Fort Kobbe International Vaults Newsletter

A look at Gold and Silver Charts (03.09.2023)

Stop blaming Putin_cartoon.Hedgeye
© Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC with permission granted by Hedgeye, reproduction and republication is expressly prohibited.

“So much for blaming energy, climate change, carbon, or Ukraine or….. Ahh Putin!!!”

We all know it all starts with printing huge amounts of currency to feed the political beast and its cohorts.

Is Credit Suisse the proverbial canary in the coal mine?

A run on the bank which has prompted much higher interest rates being offered by them to attract funds, compared to the rest of the market, may be indicative of the state of that bank, but how are the other banks faring? 

Is this the beginning of the end of the banking system as we know it? Will Europe be the start of the contagion? How far and how fast can this spread? What countries and which banks will be left untouched? How many third world countries will be affected?

See the Credit Suisse chart below:

20230309 Credit Suisse
Is an unbacked system workable? Is a backed system workable? Who checks the backing and how is confidence maintained? The current system is backed by the promise of politicians.
What about CBDC’s (Central Bank Digital Currencies)?

The dollar increasing in value (DXY) makes cross currencies weaker in comparison and increases the cost of loans repayable in local currencies for dollars borrowed, crippling countries with large dollar denominated loans. 

I wonder about an open untaxed convertibility of currencies into gold or silver as a real solution.

You can have a look at the live CBDC Tracker by clicking on this link

Gold and Silver

Looking at these two similar charts below reveal long term cup and handle patterns on both gold and silver. 

A cup and handle is a bullish continuation chart pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. In both charts, gold and silver, we still await the final breakout.

The silver:gold ratio of around 90:1, (meaning that at present it takes around 90 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold), tells me that there is a huge disconnect in price between the gold price and the silver price.

The miners are reporting a recovery of silver to gold in the region of seven to eight ounces of silver to one of gold. This type of “vacuum” cannot  last forever and at some point the difference will shrink. This makes silver at this time, in my opinion, a great buy. Of course timing of a purchase makes a financial difference.

$SILVER Silver - Silver quarterly 01 March  2023
$GOLD Gold and Silver overlayed.CME 09 March 2023

Look at Gold & Silver charts
TodayLast week
Gold Price$1,818.00$1,833.00
Silver Price$20.10$20.77
Gold: Silver Ratio90.41:188.19:1
Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index34.4834.48
Dollar Index105.43105.11
Dow: Gold Ratio
(BahaUS 32,783.50/Gold price,1818.00)
Current USA inflation rate (Dept. of Statistics)6.4%6.5%

Gold’s low of the week was $1,811.00 and the high was $1,855.00, now trading at around $1,818.00

The monthly chart for Gold is neutral looking weak but just holding off a sell signal.

The weekly chart is neutral with a sell signal which appears to be continuing.

The daily chart is not giving a buy yet, nor is it looking positive at present.

$GOLD Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 08 March 2023

The low for Silver this week was $19.91 and the high $21.32, trading around $20.09 at present.

Silver on the monthly chart has given a sell signal. We will have to wait for a proper reversal.

The weekly chart gave us a sell and looks like it has stalled there for now.

The daily chart gave a sell and has breached the bottom of the long term trading range at $21.50 with no reversal indications at present.

$SILVER Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD) CME 08 March  2023

Our partner has stock of both gold and silver in our vaults available in Panama, please contact us for more.

On the charts, the blue vertical lines are our proprietary system buy signals and the red vertical lines are system sell signals – for information purposes only.

Please contact us to arrange the purchase and storage of your gold and silver requirements in a safe, insured, location outside of your jurisdiction.

This is my interpretation of the market and is not to be taken as financial advice. Before making any buy or sell decisions I recommend that you consult with your professional financial advisor.
Larry Simon
Larry Simon

Larry Simon was educated at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and is an experienced businessman specialised in management, investment and finance.

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